ImmunityBio Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

ImmunityBio Inc

IBRXNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)0.41

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $9.28Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $9.8B

Enterprise Value $9.8B

Shares Outstanding 1.1B diluted

Next Earnings Date6 Jan 2027

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

ImmunityBio has demonstrated strong early commercial execution: Q2 2026 ANKTIVA net product revenue reached USD 50.7 million, increased 92% year over year, and marked an eighth consecutive quarter of sequential growth. First-half revenue reached USD 94.8 million, while June 30 liquidity was USD 357.4 million. The opportunity could broaden through the January 2027 papillary-only NMIBC PDUFA decision and the planned 2026 BCG-naive NMIBC filing. These merits are offset by dependence on ANKTIVA, substantial continuing commercial and clinical investment, regulatory uncertainty, and execution requirements across manufacturing, reimbursement, and international launches.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets4 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$12.00

Mean target$12.75

High · most bullish analyst$15.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$12.0020%

Sequential ANKTIVA growth stalls, pricing or reimbursement slows international commercialization, the FDA delays or rejects label expansion, or late-stage evidence proves insufficient for additional approvals. Sustained commercial and clinical spending could then reduce liquidity and increase financing or dilution risk.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$12.7557%

Matches the consensus mean

ANKTIVA retains positive but moderating commercial momentum, available liquidity supports near-term operating priorities, and ImmunityBio reaches its principal regulatory milestones with ordinary timing variability. The papillary-only review and BCG-naive filing remain the most consequential near-term value events.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$15.0023%

Commercial adoption continues to produce sequential revenue records, international availability begins contributing meaningfully, FDA approves the papillary-only expansion, and the randomized BCG-naive program supports a timely supplemental BLA. Successful execution would broaden ANKTIVA's addressable bladder-cancer population while preserving strategic optionality in lung cancer and other pipeline programs.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Q2 2026 ANKTIVA net product revenue was USD 50.7 million, up 92% year over year and 15% sequentially, representing an eighth consecutive quarter of sequential revenue growth.
ImmunityBio reported USD 357.4 million of cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities at June 30, 2026.
ANKTIVA was approved or authorized in five regulatory jurisdictions covering 34 countries as of the Q2 2026 update.
QUILT-2.005 completed enrollment of 366 randomized patients; the disclosed interim analysis reported durable complete response rates of 85% versus 57% at six months and 84% versus 52% at nine months for ANKTIVA plus BCG versus BCG alone.

Key Investment Risks

Current commercial performance is concentrated in ANKTIVA, making prescribing, reimbursement, manufacturing, BCG availability, and market-access setbacks disproportionately important.
Commercial expansion and multiple clinical programs require continuing investment, so weaker sales momentum could accelerate liquidity consumption and financing risk.
The papillary-only supplemental BLA relies on QUILT-3.032 Cohort B and an extrapolation rationale; FDA acceptance for review does not ensure approval.
The European authorization is conditional and requires continuing long-term safety and efficacy follow-up, while country-level pricing and reimbursement remain execution dependencies.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.