Imax Corp Dossier
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SectorCommunication Services IndustryEntertainment Beta (adjusted)0.61 Intrinsic Value $31.08median of 6 methods · middle span $18-$39based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $52.52Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 41% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.9B Shares Outstanding 57M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary IMAX Corporation operates a highly profitable, asset-light technology licensing model that benefits from the global premiumization of the cinema experience. With a network penetration of less than 40% of its estimated total addressable market, a robust backlog of over 470 system orders, and a highly visible blockbuster slate (including Christopher Nolan's 'The Odyssey' and 'Dune: Part Three'), IMAX is well-positioned to drive operating leverage and expand margins. While near-term China headwinds and takeover speculation introduce volatility, the standalone business remains fundamentally strong. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$42.00 Mean target$51.18 High · most bullish analyst$60.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $42.0015% A prolonged slowdown in theatrical attendance, failure of key blockbusters to meet expectations, and escalating geopolitical or economic headwinds in China lead to deferred system installations and lower box office revenue share. Standalone valuation contracts as takeover speculation dissipates. Base CaseCentral scenario $51.1860% Matches the consensus meanIMAX successfully delivers on its 2026 guidance of $1.4 billion in global box office and 160 to 175 system installations. Steady expansion of alternative content and local-language films offsets soft comparisons in China, maintaining an adjusted EBITDA margin of at least 45% as a standalone entity. Bull CaseUpside scenario $60.0025% Accelerated global system installations exceeding 175 units, driven by strong demand in India and Southeast Asia, combined with record-breaking box office performance from key 2026-2027 releases. This drives adjusted EBITDA margins above 50% and triggers a premium buyout from a major technology or private equity giant. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |