Illumina Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Illumina Inc

ILMNNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryDiagnostics & Research

Beta (adjusted)1.31

Intrinsic Value $141.82median of 6 methods · middle span $125-$143as of 19 Jun 2026

Market Price $265.72Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 47% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $40.1B

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Illumina entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter revenue increased 9.5%, rest-of-world organic growth reached 8.1%, and management raised full-year revenue and EPS guidance. High NovaSeq X demand and expanding clinical applications support continued growth, while workflow and multiomics expansion offer additional opportunities.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets19 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$113.00

Mean target$198.89

High · most bullish analyst$230.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$113.0023%

Rest-of-world organic growth falls to or below 5%, operating margin misses the 23.4% guidance floor, or weaker order timing and product mix outweigh clinical demand. Continued China restrictions, tariffs, competitive pressure, manufacturing challenges, or SomaLogic integration difficulties further reduce execution quality.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$198.8956%

Matches the consensus mean

Illumina substantially delivers its FY2026 guidance: revenue remains within $4.60-$4.64 billion, rest-of-world organic growth exceeds 5%, and non-GAAP operating margin approaches 23.4%-23.6%. Clinical sequencing and NovaSeq X demand offset continued China and integration uncertainty.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$230.0021%

Demand for NovaSeq X and sequencing-intensive clinical applications remains high, rest-of-world organic growth stays materially above 5%, and workflow and multiomics expansion broadens customer adoption. Revenue and profitability consequently finish near or above the upper ends of management's FY2026 ranges.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Q2 2026 revenue increased 9.5% year over year to $1.159 billion, while rest-of-world organic revenue growth reached 8.1%; management raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $4.60-$4.64 billion.
Management reported continued high NovaSeq X demand and expanding sequencing-intensive clinical applications, with workflow and multiomics capabilities broadening the Illumina ecosystem.

Key Investment Risks

Q2 2026 non-GAAP operating margin was 22.5%, below the 23.4%-23.6% full-year target and down from 23.8% in Q2 2025.
Illumina remains on China's Unreliable Entities List, while SomaLogic integration, tariffs, manufacturing execution, competition, reimbursement, regulatory clearances, and residual GRAIL litigation remain disclosed uncertainties.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.