Illinois Tool Works Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryIndustrial Machinery Beta (adjusted)0.99 Intrinsic Value $236.31median of 6 methods · middle span $231-$246based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $260.84Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 9% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $74.3B Enterprise Value $81B Shares Outstanding 286.7M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend30 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary ITW entered the second half of 2026 with accelerating organic growth, record quarterly operating income, margin expansion and raised full-year guidance. Its decentralized business model and enterprise initiatives support durable margin and cash-generation potential, while the improvement remains uneven: Automotive OEM organic revenue declined slightly in the second quarter, and price-adjustment timing modestly diluted margins. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$249.00 Mean target$301.86 High · most bullish analyst$350.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $249.0020% Capex-related momentum fades, Automotive OEM weakness broadens, and inflation or delayed pricing actions pressure variable margins. Organic growth or operating margin consequently falls below the lower bound of management's 2026 guidance. Base CaseCentral scenario $301.8657% Matches the consensus meanOrganic growth and profitability remain within the raised 2026 guidance ranges, supported by Welding, Test & Measurement and Electronics, and Polymers & Fluids, while softer businesses limit broader acceleration. Free-cash-flow conversion improves seasonally toward the full-year objective. Bull CaseUpside scenario $350.0023% Capex-related demand remains strong, Customer-Back Innovation increases ITW's market outgrowth, and enterprise initiatives continue contributing more than 100 basis points to margin performance. Results reach or exceed the upper ends of the company's 2026 organic-growth, operating-margin and EPS guidance ranges. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |