IHS Holding Ltd Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryReal Estate Services Beta (adjusted)0.83 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $8.35Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.8B Enterprise Value $4.8B Shares Outstanding 335M diluted Next Earnings Date10 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary IHS Holding Ltd is currently in the final stages of a definitive merger agreement to be acquired by its largest shareholder and customer, MTN Group, for $8.50 per share in cash (valuing the company at an enterprise value of approximately $6.2 billion). The transaction has been unanimously recommended by the IHS Board and has secured support from major shareholders representing over 40% of the voting power. However, completion remains subject to regulatory clearances across multiple African jurisdictions and the successful closing of its Latin American asset divestments. Given that the stock is trading close to the acquisition offer price of $8.50, the investment case is primarily a merger arbitrage play with limited organic upside, justifying a Hold rating pending deal closure. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$7.50 Mean target$8.25 High · most bullish analyst$8.50 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The transaction fails to close due to regulatory blocks in major markets like Nigeria or South Africa, or a failure to complete the Latin American divestments. IHS remains public, and the stock price falls back to its pre-announcement levels, pressured by high leverage and macroeconomic/FX volatility in sub-Saharan Africa. Base CaseCentral scenario The merger with MTN Group successfully closes in late 2026 at the agreed price of $8.50 per share. The condition precedents, including the sale of Latin American tower operations to Macquarie Asset Management and regulatory approvals in key African markets, are satisfied. Shareholders receive immediate liquidity at the transaction price. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |