iHeartMedia Inc Dossier
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SectorCommunication Services IndustryBroadcasting Beta (adjusted)1.81 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $2.10Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $325.1M Shares Outstanding 157.7M diluted Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary iHeartMedia is navigating a highly leveraged transition from legacy linear radio to digital audio and podcasting. While its Digital Audio Group continues to show strong momentum, legacy multiplatform advertising remains under structural pressure. The company's massive debt load of approximately $5.04 billion (net debt of $4.67 billion) represents a severe overhang, resulting in a high net leverage ratio of 6.9x as of Q1 2026. Although management has reaffirmed its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance of $800 million and free cash flow of $200 million, persistent bottom-line losses and high interest expenses limit equity upside, making the stock a Sell. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$2.25 Mean target$3.63 High · most bullish analyst$5.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $2.2530% Macroeconomic headwinds and a soft advertising market cause a sharper-than-expected decline in legacy broadcast radio. High interest rates continue to pressure the company's capital structure, and free cash flow generation falls short of the $200 million target. The company struggles to refinance its upcoming debt maturities, leading to increased restructuring risks and equity dilution. Base CaseCentral scenario $4.1350% Digital audio and podcasting continue to grow at double-digit rates, while the Multiplatform Group remains flat to slightly negative. The company achieves its $150 million in total cost savings and generates $800 million in adjusted EBITDA and $200 million in free cash flow for the full year 2026. Net leverage declines to the mid-5s by year-end as the ABL facility is paid down, but the overall debt burden remains a significant constraint on valuation. Bull CaseUpside scenario $6.0020% The Digital Audio Group and podcasting segments grow faster than expected, fully offsetting legacy broadcast declines. Programmatic broadcast revenue via the AudioGraph platform scales rapidly, reaching its $200 million target in 2026. Political ad spend during the midterm election cycle in Q3 and Q4 2026 provides a massive high-margin revenue boost, allowing the company to exceed its $800 million EBITDA target and aggressively pay down debt. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |