Idex Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Idex Corp

IEXNYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustrySpecialty Industrial Machinery

Beta (adjusted)0.99

Intrinsic Value $196.20median of 6 methods · middle span $160-$202based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $229.85Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 15% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $16.9B

Enterprise Value $18.2B

Shares Outstanding 73.9M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend6 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

IDEX entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: Q2 organic sales increased 5%, organic orders increased 28%, and management raised full-year organic-growth and adjusted-EPS guidance for the second consecutive quarter. Health & Science Technologies is the principal growth engine, supported by AI-related data-center power, semiconductor, and space-and-defense demand. The balance is less compelling: FMT grew only 1% organically in Q2, FSDP contracted 1%, and Q2 adjusted EBITDA margin and adjusted EPS included benefits from tariff refunds. At $230.28, the issuer-reported share price was close to its $243.80 52-week high.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets14 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$215.00

Mean target$254.50

High · most bullish analyst$280.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$215.0020%

AI-related and semiconductor demand normalizes before the record order pipeline fully converts, FSDP contraction persists, and the temporary benefit from tariff refunds reverses. Lower volume leverage and unfavorable mix then cause organic growth or adjusted EPS to fall below the lower bounds of management's raised guidance.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$254.5056%

Matches the consensus mean

IDEX delivers approximately within its raised FY2026 guidance of 5%-6% organic sales growth and $8.70-$8.85 adjusted diluted EPS. HST remains the primary growth engine while FMT grows modestly and FSDP remains soft.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$280.0024%

Record Q2 orders convert into sustained sales, HST maintains strong organic growth as AI-related data-center and semiconductor demand broadens, and productivity plus volume leverage support further margin expansion. FMT improves and FSDP returns to growth, allowing results to exceed the raised 2026 guidance.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Management raised FY2026 organic-sales guidance from an initial 1%-2% to 3%-4% after Q1 and then to 5%-6% after Q2; adjusted-EPS guidance rose from $8.15-$8.35 initially to $8.70-$8.85.
Q2 orders reached a record $1,071.6 million, increasing 29% as reported and 28% organically, providing favorable near-term demand visibility.
HST delivered 12% Q2 organic growth and a 28.7% adjusted EBITDA margin, supported by AI-related data-center power, semiconductor, and space-and-defense demand.

Key Investment Risks

Growth breadth is limited: Q2 organic growth was 12% in HST, 1% in FMT, and negative 1% in FSDP.
IEEPA tariff refunds benefited Q2 adjusted EBITDA margin by 130 basis points and adjusted diluted EPS by $0.08, making reported momentum partly nonrecurring.
FSDP remained in organic contraction as weaker European rescue and dispensing demand more than offset BAND-IT growth and positive pricing.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.