Ideaya Biosciences Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Ideaya Biosciences Inc

IDYANASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)0.28

Intrinsic Value $88.57median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $37.81Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 134% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+134%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $3.6B

Enterprise Value $3.4B

Shares Outstanding 90.5M diluted

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

IDEAYA Biosciences is a premier precision medicine oncology company uniquely positioned at the forefront of synthetic lethality and antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs). Unlike speculative, cash-poor biotech peers, IDEAYA is highly de-risked by a robust balance sheet with approximately $973 million in cash (runway into 2030) and high-profile pharmaceutical partnerships (e.g., Servier, Pfizer, Amgen, and Roche). The positive registrational topline data from the OptimUM-02 trial of darovasertib in HLA*A2-negative metastatic uveal melanoma (mUM) paves the way for its first NDA submission under the FDA's Real-Time Oncology Review (RTOR) program. With a deep clinical pipeline spanning multiple synthetic lethality pathways (MAT2A, PRMT5, KAT6/7) and next-generation TOP1 ADCs, IDEAYA offers a compelling risk-reward profile with near-term regulatory catalysts and long-term platform optionality.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets13 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$31.00

Mean target$52.15

High · most bullish analyst$65.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$36.00

The bear case is driven by potential regulatory delays or complete clinical failures of darovasertib, such as safety concerns emerging during the FDA review or immature overall survival data limiting market adoption. Furthermore, early-stage pipeline assets (IDE397, IDE892, or the TOP1 ADCs) could encounter dose-limiting toxicities or lack of efficacy in expansion cohorts, leading to program terminations. High cash burn from running multiple registrational trials simultaneously could force further dilutive equity raises at depressed stock prices.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$52.15

Matches the consensus mean

The base case models a steady regulatory path for darovasertib, with NDA submission in late 2026/early 2027 and approval by mid-2027. The company continues to advance its early-stage pipeline (IDE397, IDE892, IDE574, IDE034) through Phase 1/2 trials, meeting clinical milestones in line with corporate guidance. Cash runway remains secure into 2030, minimizing the need for highly dilutive financing in the near term. Valuation is supported by strong analyst consensus and established big-pharma collaborations.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$66.00

The bull case assumes rapid FDA approval of darovasertib in HLA*A2-negative mUM under the RTOR program, followed by a highly successful commercial launch that establishes it as the standard of care. Additionally, clinical data updates for IDE849 (DLL3 TOP1 ADC) and IDE034 (B7H3/PTK7 bispecific ADC) by the end of 2026 demonstrate best-in-class efficacy and safety, triggering lucrative licensing deals or a premium acquisition by a major pharmaceutical partner. The MTAP-deletion programs (IDE397 and IDE892) show deep, durable responses in lung and pancreatic cancers, validating the synthetic lethality platform.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

De-risked lead asset (darovasertib) with positive registrational Phase 2/3 data in metastatic uveal melanoma and an active RTOR pathway.
Formidable balance sheet with ~$973 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities, providing a runway into 2030.
High-value strategic collaborations with global pharma leaders (Servier, Pfizer, Amgen, Roche) validating the scientific platform.
Broad, diversified precision oncology pipeline targeting synthetic lethality (MAT2A, PRMT5, KAT6/7) and next-generation TOP1 ADCs.

Key Investment Risks

Clinical and regulatory risks inherent in drug development, particularly the risk of FDA delays or rejection of the darovasertib NDA.
Commercial execution risk as a clinical-stage biotech transitioning to its first product launch.
Dilution risk from future public equity offerings to fund late-stage clinical trials, as evidenced by the June 2026 capital raise.
Intense competition in the precision oncology and targeted ADC spaces from both established pharma and well-funded biotech peers.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

FDA refusal to file or rejection of the darovasertib NDA.
Severe, unexpected safety signals or toxicities emerging in the darovasertib, IDE397, or IDE892 clinical trials.
Termination of key strategic partnerships, particularly the collaboration with Servier for darovasertib.
Significant acceleration in cash burn rate that shortens the cash runway to under 24 months.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.