Idaho Strategic Resources Inc Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustryGold Beta (adjusted)1.17 Intrinsic Value $24.78median of 4 methods · middle span $24-$25based on filings through 30 Sep 2025 Market Price $28.25Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 12% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $447.1M Enterprise Value $441M Shares Outstanding 16.7M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date14 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Idaho Strategic Resources, Inc. (IDR) presents a compelling investment opportunity as a profitable, production-backed gold miner that internally funds its high-upside critical minerals and rare earth elements (REE) exploration. By leveraging cash flows from its flagship Golden Chest Mine, IDR avoids the dilutive equity raises typical of early-stage exploration companies. The company's strategic positioning as a major domestic holder of rare earth and thorium assets aligns with national security initiatives to secure critical mineral supply chains, further validated by recent Department of Energy funding selections. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$45.00 Mean target$45.00 High · most bullish analyst$45.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case involves a sharp correction in gold prices below $3,500/oz, squeezing operating margins and reducing the cash available to fund exploration. Operational delays or cost overruns at the Murray Mill project could force the company to seek dilutive external financing, while early-stage REE exploration results may fail to prove commercial viability. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes steady gold production of approximately 15,000 ounces in FY 2026, supported by strong realized gold prices. The construction of the new 400 tpd Murray Mill remains on track for Q1 2027 commissioning, which will lower processing costs and expand capacity. Early-stage REE exploration at Lemhi Pass and Mineral Hill continues to yield positive geological indicators, supported by non-dilutive government grants. Bull CaseUpside scenario Idaho Strategic is in a robust financial position with no long-term debt, high liquidity, and strong cash flow from its sole producing asset, the Golden Chest Mine. This cash flow and financial flexibility allow the company to aggressively fund speculative but highly promising exploration of its extensive land holdings in the Murray Gold Belt and its major rare earth elements (REE) properties in Idaho, positioning it to capitalize on both the gold bull run and domestic critical mineral demand. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |