Idacorp Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Idacorp Inc

IDANYSE

SectorUtilities

IndustryElectric Utilities

Beta (adjusted)0.65

Intrinsic Value $121.45median of 5 methods · middle span $103-$132based on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $131.86Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 8% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $7.6B

Enterprise Value $10.9B

Shares Outstanding 54.8M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend5 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

IDACORP Inc. presents a compelling regulated utility investment narrative centered on robust customer and large-load growth in its Idaho and Oregon service territories. The company is executing a massive $7.1 billion capital expenditure plan through 2030 to expand its transmission, distribution, and generation infrastructure. This capital deployment is expected to drive steady rate base expansion and visible earnings growth, supported by timely regulatory cost recovery mechanisms. While heavy capital requirements necessitate substantial equity financing—including a new $600 million at-the-market (ATM) program—the company's strong operational execution, constructive regulatory environment, and 15-year track record of dividend increases position it as a premier defensive holding with attractive total return potential.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets9 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$144.00

Mean target$158.78

High · most bullish analyst$171.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$121.0020%

Heavier-than-expected equity issuance under the ATM program dilutes near-term EPS if capital projects face construction delays or regulatory cost disallowances. Severe drought or poor winter snowpack limits hydropower generation, forcing reliance on expensive market purchases or natural gas, which compresses margins. Regulatory friction in Oregon or Idaho limits allowed ROEs.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$158.7850%

Matches the consensus mean

IDACORP delivers steady rate base growth in line with its $1.3B - $1.5B annual CapEx plan. Customer growth remains stable at 1-2% annually, and the company achieves its FY 2026 EPS guidance of $6.25 - $6.45. Dilution from the $600 million ATM equity program is gradually absorbed by rate base additions, and the quarterly dividend continues its historical ~5% annual growth trajectory.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$167.0030%

Strong economic migration and industrial expansion in southern Idaho drive electricity demand above historical averages. Timely regulatory approvals allow full cost recovery on major transmission projects like the Boardman-to-Hemingway line, accelerating rate base growth. Favorable water conditions boost low-cost hydropower generation, expanding operating margins and supporting EPS at the high end of guidance ($6.45+).

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Constructive regulatory jurisdictions in Idaho and Oregon with timely cost recovery mechanisms.
Strong demographic and industrial load growth in the Boise metro area and surrounding regions.
A highly valuable, low-cost generation portfolio anchored by Snake River hydroelectric facilities.
A robust 15-year track record of consecutive annual dividend increases.

Key Investment Risks

Potential EPS dilution from the $600 million at-the-market equity distribution program.
Hydrological volatility affecting low-cost hydroelectric output and increasing fuel expenses.
Execution and cost-overrun risks on large-scale transmission projects like Boardman-to-Hemingway.
Rising wildfire mitigation costs and associated liability exposures.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A material downward revision in allowed ROE or capital cost recovery by the Idaho Public Utilities Commission.
Significant delays or cancellation of key transmission expansion projects.
EPS growth consistently falling below the company's long-term targets due to equity dilution.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.