ICU Medical Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryMedical Instruments & Supplies Beta (adjusted)0.83 Intrinsic Value $121.52median of 6 methods · middle span $51-$149based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $157.18Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 23% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $3.9B Enterprise Value $4.9B Shares Outstanding 25.3M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary ICU Medical is positioned as a leading pure-play infusion therapy provider, poised to benefit from a major IV system replacement cycle and competitive disruptions in the U.S. large volume pump market. With the Smiths Medical integration nearing completion, the company is approaching a free cash flow inflection point. Synergies are expected to drive gross margins from the current ~38-41% range toward 43% exiting 2027, enabling rapid deleveraging to its 2.0x net leverage target. The transition to a unified LifeShield software platform across its pump portfolio will enhance customer retention and recurring consumables revenue. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$178.00 Mean target$193.38 High · most bullish analyst$210.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $178.00 Persistent tariff pressures and integration friction delay margin recovery. Regulatory clearances for the Medfusion 5000 and next-generation CADD pumps face extended timelines, allowing competitors to resolve their quality issues and limit ICU Medical's market share gains. High debt service costs continue to weigh on net income. Base CaseCentral scenario $193.38 Matches the consensus meanICU Medical successfully completes the Smiths Medical integration, with manufacturing consolidation driving gross margins to 41% in 2026 and 43% exiting 2027. Organic revenue grows at a steady mid-single-digit rate, supported by recurring consumables sales. The company achieves its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $7.75 to $8.45 and reduces net leverage to 2.0x by early 2027. Bull CaseUpside scenario $210.00 Accelerated market share capture in the U.S. large volume pump market due to competitor quality issues (e.g., Baxter's Novum IQ ship hold) drives rapid adoption of the Plum Duo and Solo platforms. Synergies from the Smiths Medical integration materialize faster than expected, pushing gross margins past 43% by early 2027 and driving significant free cash flow expansion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |