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SectorHealth Care IndustryDiagnostics & Research Beta (adjusted)1.13 Intrinsic Value $89.65median of 6 methods · middle span $8-$220based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $161.85Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 45% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $12.5B Enterprise Value $13.7B Shares Outstanding 76M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary ICON's commercial indicators improved materially in the first half of 2026, with second-quarter net business wins of $3.12 billion, a 1.51 net book-to-bill ratio and $23.4 billion of closing backlog. However, operating performance remains under pressure: second-quarter adjusted EBITDA margin was 15.9%, year-to-date adjusted EBITDA declined 20.9% year over year, and adjusted diluted EPS fell to $5.06 from $6.79. The completed accounting investigation, restatement of 2023 and 2024 revenue, and identified material weaknesses warrant a governance and execution discount until remediation is demonstrated. A Hold stance balances strong bookings, scale and AI-enabled productivity opportunities against weak near-term earnings momentum and unresolved control risk. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$155.00 Mean target$185.56 High · most bullish analyst$220.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $155.0024% Pass-through variability, weaker backlog conversion or customer cancellations prevent bookings from translating into durable direct-fee growth. Adjusted margins remain near or below first-half levels, while delayed remediation of material weaknesses or additional accounting consequences increase the required risk discount. Base CaseCentral scenario $185.5655% Matches the consensus meanICON delivers within its 2026 revenue and adjusted EPS guidance, supported by healthy bookings and backlog, but revenue mix and operational headwinds keep margin recovery gradual. Control remediation proceeds without another material restatement. Bull CaseUpside scenario $220.0021% Strong bookings convert into direct-fee revenue, the direct-fee book-to-bill ratio remains above one, and the Microsoft and Anthropic collaborations accelerate deployment of ICON's Orbis platform. Productivity gains and disciplined cost management then support a faster-than-expected margin recovery while backlog continues expanding. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |