ICL Group Ltd Dossier - Source-backed chat

ICL Group Ltd

ICLNYSE

SectorMaterials

IndustryAgricultural Inputs

Beta (adjusted)0.97

Intrinsic Value $4.46median of 6 methods · middle span $4-$5based on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $4.97Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 10% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $6.4B

Enterprise Value $8B

Shares Outstanding 1.3B diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date11 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend2 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

ICL Group Ltd. is a leading global specialty minerals company with a dominant position in bromine and a low-cost potash production profile. The company has demonstrated strong operational resilience, raising its FY 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $1.5B–$1.7B following a robust Q1 2026 performance. However, persistent headwinds from high raw material costs (particularly sulfur), currency volatility (shekel strength), and ongoing geopolitical risks in Israel temper near-term upside, justifying a Hold rating.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets4 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$5.50

Mean target$5.81

High · most bullish analyst$6.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Base CaseCentral scenario

ICL successfully navigates geopolitical tensions and maintains stable production volumes. Potash and bromine prices remain elevated, offsetting shekel strength and high sulfur costs. The integration of Bartek Ingredients and expansion in India drive growth in specialty crop nutrition and food solutions.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Global leadership in bromine, controlling approximately 33% of global capacity as of FY 2025.
Low-cost potash production advantage at the Dead Sea via solar evaporation.
Strategic pivot toward high-margin specialty crop nutrition and food solutions, reducing commodity cyclicality.

Key Investment Risks

Geopolitical and security instability in Israel impacting supply chains and operations.
High and volatile raw material costs, particularly sulfur, which pressures phosphate margins.
Regulatory uncertainties surrounding the renewal of Dead Sea concession permits beyond 2030.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.