ICICI Bank Ltd ADR Dossier - Source-backed chat

ICICI Bank Ltd ADR

ICICIBANKNational Stock Exchange of India

SectorFinancials

IndustryDiversified Banks

Beta (adjusted)0.61

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $27.51Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $98.7B

Shares Outstanding 3.6B diluted

Next Earnings Date16 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend3 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

ICICI Bank entered fiscal 2027 with strong operating momentum: advances grew 19.6% year over year, deposits grew 14.0%, net interest margin was 4.36%, and the net NPA ratio remained low at 0.35% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. These indicators support a constructive view of franchise execution and credit quality. The neutral recommendation reflects valuation discipline rather than operational weakness.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets4 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$35.30

Mean target$35.83

High · most bullish analyst$36.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$35.3020%

Advances continue to outgrow deposits by a wide margin, increasing funding pressure; net interest margin falls below 4.0%; or net NPA rises above 0.50%. A combination of margin compression and credit normalization would weaken the current operating-quality thesis.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$35.8355%

Matches the consensus mean

Growth moderates from the June-quarter pace while remaining healthy, deposit growth improves relative to advances, net interest margin stays at or above 4.0%, and net NPA remains below 0.50%.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$36.0025%

Advances continue growing at a high-teens rate, deposit growth catches up, net interest margin remains near its June-quarter level, and the net NPA ratio remains below 0.50%. Sustained profitable growth without material credit normalization would support a more favorable stance after valuation is independently anchored.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Total advances grew 19.6% year over year at June 30, 2026, demonstrating strong balance-sheet momentum.
Net interest margin was 4.36% in the June 2026 quarter, above 4.32% in the preceding quarter.
Asset quality remained strong, with gross and net NPA ratios of 1.38% and 0.35%, respectively, at June 30, 2026.

Key Investment Risks

Advances growth of 19.6% exceeded deposit growth of 14.0%, creating a funding-growth gap that could pressure margins if it persists.
A rise in the net NPA ratio from 0.35% to above 0.50% would indicate meaningful credit normalization from the current low base.
ADR returns remain exposed to Indian regulatory conditions and movements in the Indian rupee against the U.S. dollar.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.