ICF International Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

ICF International Inc

ICFINASDAQ

SectorIndustrials

IndustryConsulting Services

Beta (adjusted)0.68

Intrinsic Value $118.83median of 6 methods · middle span $98-$146based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $84.97Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 40% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $1.5B

Enterprise Value $1.9B

Shares Outstanding 18.2M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend4 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

ICF International (NASDAQ: ICFI) is well-positioned for a return to growth in 2026, supported by a robust $3.4 billion backlog ($1.7 billion funded) and a strong trailing twelve-month (TTM) book-to-bill ratio of 1.21. Despite a temporary Q1 2026 revenue decline of 10.3% year-over-year to $437.5 million due to project timing shifts, the underlying demand remains strong. Sequential stabilization in the U.S. federal government client segment (+8.6% sequentially) and double-digit growth in international government clients (+17.5% YoY) support management's reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance. Trading at a significant discount to its historical multiples and intrinsic value, ICFI offers an attractive entry point for value-oriented investors.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets4 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$80.00

Mean target$107.25

High · most bullish analyst$124.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$80.00

Continued project delays in the commercial energy and international government segments prevent the recovery of shifted revenues. Federal government procurement remains sluggish due to budget constraints or administrative transitions, and rising subcontractor pass-through costs compress gross margins, leading to a failure to meet full-year 2026 guidance.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$107.25

Matches the consensus mean

ICF successfully recovers the $12 million in shifted Q1 project work throughout the remainder of 2026, achieving its reaffirmed full-year revenue guidance of $1.89 billion to $1.96 billion (3% growth at the midpoint). Federal government revenues continue to stabilize, and the company maintains steady adjusted EBITDA margins of approximately 11.2%, supported by its robust backlog and business development pipeline.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$124.00

Accelerated recovery of shifted project revenues in Q2 and H2 2026, combined with stronger-than-expected double-digit growth in commercial energy, disaster recovery, and international government segments. Successful execution of high-margin IT modernization and advanced technology solutions drives EBITDA margin expansion beyond the current 11.2% level, leading to a rapid upward re-rating toward historical valuation multiples.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Robust $3.4 billion total backlog ($1.7 billion funded) providing high revenue visibility and derisking the path to 2026-2027 growth targets.
Strong demand indicators with a TTM book-to-bill ratio of 1.21 and an active business development pipeline of $8.5 billion.
Sequential stabilization in the U.S. federal government segment (+8.6% sequential growth in Q1 2026) and strong international expansion (+17.5% YoY).
A robust business development pipeline of $8.5 billion at the end of Q1 2026 and a strong trailing twelve-month book-to-bill ratio of 1.21 support long-term revenue visibility and growth.

Key Investment Risks

Dependence on federal government contracts, exposing the company to policy shifts, procurement delays, and budget constraints.
Project timing shifts that can cause short-term quarterly revenue and earnings volatility.
Short-term revenue and earnings volatility driven by project timing shifts, as demonstrated by a 10.3% year-over-year revenue decline in Q1 2026 due to delays in commercial energy and international government projects.
Financial and integration risks associated with a more aggressive M&A strategy in 2026.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure to recover the $12 million in shifted Q1 project revenues by the end of fiscal year 2026.
A significant downward revision of full-year 2026 revenue guidance below $1.89 billion.
A sustained decline in the TTM book-to-bill ratio below 1.00, indicating contracting demand.
EBITDA margin compression below 10.5% due to unmitigated pass-through cost inflation.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.