Hyatt Hotels Corp Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryLodging Beta (adjusted)1.23 Intrinsic Value $142.42median of 6 methods · middle span $49-$161based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $160.94Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 12% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $15.2B Enterprise Value $18.3B Shares Outstanding 94.5M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend27 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Hyatt's second-quarter operating evidence is constructive but mixed. Comparable system-wide hotel RevPAR increased 5.9%, gross fees increased 7.8%, and the executed contract pipeline reached approximately 154,000 rooms. Offsetting those strengths, trailing-twelve-month net rooms growth was 3.9%, all-inclusive Net Package RevPAR decreased 1.2%, and management cited slower recovery in Mexico, Middle East disruption, and possible opening shifts into 2027. The resulting stance is Hold because the operating franchise remains healthy. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$165.00 Mean target$196.43 High · most bullish analyst$221.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $165.0023% Persistent weakness in all-inclusive destinations, geopolitical disruption, and opening delays prevent Hyatt from reaching its approximately 6% rooms-growth objective or the lower bound of Adjusted EBITDA guidance. Base CaseCentral scenario $196.4356% Matches the consensus meanHyatt broadly achieves its 2026 outlook, including approximately 6% net rooms growth and Adjusted EBITDA of $1,155-$1,205 million, while regional weakness and delayed openings constrain upside. Bull CaseUpside scenario $221.0021% Hyatt converts more of its 154,000-room pipeline on schedule, reaches the upper portions of its 2026 RevPAR and Adjusted EBITDA guidance, and benefits from sustained fee growth as Mexico and Jamaica conditions normalize. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |