Huntsman Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Huntsman Corp

HUNNYSE

SectorMaterials

IndustryChemicals

Beta (adjusted)0.78

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $8.67Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $1.5B

Enterprise Value $3.2B

Shares Outstanding 173.2M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend15 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Huntsman Corporation is navigating a prolonged cyclical downturn in the global chemical sector, characterized by weak demand in construction and industrial end markets, and heightened feedstock cost volatility. In Q1 2026, the company reported a net loss of $53 million and adjusted EBITDA of $73 million, impacted by a sharp rise in benzene and European natural gas prices due to geopolitical conflicts in March. To defend margins, Huntsman has implemented aggressive worldwide pricing initiatives and is focusing on cost reduction and cash flow generation. While the company is seeing early signs of volume recovery in Polyurethanes and Advanced Materials (aerospace), high leverage and weak profitability led to a Fitch downgrade to BB+ with a Negative outlook in April 2026. Consequently, the stock remains a Hold, highly dependent on the execution of pricing strategies and a broader macroeconomic recovery.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets11 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$10.00

Mean target$11.82

High · most bullish analyst$16.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$10.0015%

Geopolitical conflicts prolong feedstock and energy cost volatility, particularly for benzene and European natural gas, while global macroeconomic weakness keeps construction and industrial demand depressed. Huntsman's pricing initiatives fail to fully offset rising input costs, leading to continued net losses, negative free cash flow, and further credit rating downgrades due to elevated leverage.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$11.8260%

Matches the consensus mean

Huntsman experiences a gradual, modest recovery in volumes throughout the remainder of 2026, supported by early positive trends in Polyurethanes and Advanced Materials. Worldwide pricing initiatives successfully offset feedstock cost volatility, stabilizing margins. The company continues to focus on cost control and cash preservation, keeping capital expenditures disciplined and suspending share repurchases to manage its leverage profile.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$16.0025%

A rapid and sustained recovery in global construction, automotive, and industrial sectors drives a sharp rebound in MDI and polyurethane volumes. Simultaneously, stable feedstock costs and successful worldwide pricing initiatives allow Huntsman to leverage its high operating leverage, leading to significant margin expansion, improved free cash flow, and potential deleveraging ahead of expectations.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Early signs of volume recovery, with Q1 2026 showing 4% year-on-year volume growth in Polyurethanes and over 10% revenue growth in Advanced Materials driven by aerospace sales.
Strong execution on cost realignment, achieving an annualized run-rate of $110 million in savings, exceeding the initial $100 million target.
High operating leverage and niche leadership in differentiated MDI-based polyurethanes and specialty amines, positioning the company for substantial upside upon cyclical recovery.

Key Investment Risks

Elevated leverage and weak profitability, which led to a credit rating downgrade to BB+ with a Negative outlook by Fitch in April 2026.
Persistent global oversupply of polyurethanes and MDI, particularly from Asian producers, putting downward pressure on average selling prices.
Exposure to volatile feedstock and energy costs, such as benzene and European natural gas, which can rapidly compress margins during geopolitical disruptions.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A failure of worldwide pricing initiatives to offset rising feedstock costs, leading to further margin compression and larger net losses.
Significant deterioration in free cash flow that threatens the sustainability of the revised $0.0875 per share quarterly dividend.
A prolonged freeze in the North American housing and construction markets, preventing volume and margin recovery in the Polyurethanes segment.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.