Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc

HIINYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryAerospace & Defense

Beta (adjusted)0.51

Intrinsic Value $262.27median of 6 methods · middle span $215-$413based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $274.33Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 4% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $10.8B

Enterprise Value $13.5B

Shares Outstanding 39.4M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend28 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

HII entered the second half of 2026 with improving operating evidence: second-quarter revenue reached $3.4 billion, management raised shipbuilding revenue guidance to $10.2-$10.4 billion, lifted the low end of shipbuilding margin guidance, and maintained its free-cash-flow outlook. Long-duration demand was reinforced by submarine awards shared with General Dynamics Electric Boat, while Mission Technologies added a $2.2 billion task order. Nevertheless, the case remains execution-sensitive because the outlook requires approximately 15% shipbuilding throughput growth and at least 6.0% shipbuilding operating margin. A Hold is appropriate pending proof that higher throughput converts into margin and cash flow.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets12 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$304.00

Mean target$368.08

High · most bullish analyst$439.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$304.0020%

Shipbuilding execution fails to convert higher volume into the guided margin and cash-flow outcomes. Revenue falls below $10.2 billion, shipbuilding operating margin drops below 6.0%, or free cash flow finishes below $500 million. The risk is amplified if the shared submarine award contributes less HII-specific work than headline contract value implies or if option-year work under the STINGRAI task order is delayed.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$368.0855%

Matches the consensus mean

HII delivers within its raised $10.2-$10.4 billion shipbuilding revenue range, achieves approximately 15% throughput growth, produces shipbuilding margin within the 6.0%-6.5% range, and generates $500-$600 million of free cash flow. Contract demand remains favorable, but operating conversion improves gradually rather than immediately.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$439.0025%

Throughput growth meets or exceeds the approximately 15% target, shipbuilding margin remains within or above the 6.0%-6.5% range, and free cash flow reaches at least $500 million. The Virginia- and Columbia-class awards support long-duration nuclear-shipbuilding demand, successful Kennedy acceptance trials reduce near-term milestone uncertainty, and the STINGRAI award broadens Mission Technologies' opportunity set.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Management raised FY2026 shipbuilding revenue guidance to $10.2-$10.4 billion, raised the low end of shipbuilding margin guidance, and reaffirmed free-cash-flow expectations after the second quarter.
The approximately $76.6 billion of submarine contract modifications shared by HII's Newport News Shipbuilding and General Dynamics Electric Boat covers five additional Columbia-class and nine additional Virginia-class submarines plus infrastructure funding.
Mission Technologies received a $2.2 billion STINGRAI task order with a base year and six option years, adding a substantial all-domain intelligence and surveillance opportunity outside traditional ship construction.

Key Investment Risks

The 2026 outlook depends on approximately 15% shipbuilding throughput growth translating into at least 6.0% operating margin and $500 million of free cash flow; volume growth without productivity or collections would weaken the thesis.
The approximately $76.6 billion submarine award is a combined Navy modification for HII and General Dynamics Electric Boat, not an HII-only award, so the headline amount should not be treated as HII-specific backlog.
The $2.2 billion STINGRAI task order spans one base year and six option years, making the timing and exercise of option-year work relevant to realized revenue.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.