Humana Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryManaged Health Care Beta (adjusted)0.82 Intrinsic Value $367.84median of 6 methods · middle span $211-$410based on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $379.68Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 3% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $45.6B Enterprise Value $54.6B Shares Outstanding 120.6M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date6 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend26 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Humana's operating outlook is balanced. Management affirmed at least $9.00 of adjusted EPS for 2026, approximately 25% individual Medicare Advantage membership growth, and a 92.5%-93.0% Insurance segment benefit-ratio range. CenterWell Senior Primary Care patients increased by 130,900, or 27%, year to date. These growth signals are offset by elevated medical costs, the reduction of GAAP EPS guidance to at least $6.52, and the continuing 2026 Star Ratings earnings headwind. A Hold stance is appropriate pending evidence that enrollment growth converts into durable margin recovery. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$280.00 Mean target$416.43 High · most bullish analyst$513.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $280.0025% The Insurance benefit ratio rises above 93%, adjusted EPS guidance falls below $9.00, or Medicare Advantage growth underperforms the approximately 25% outlook. Under that outcome, higher utilization, weaker enrollment economics, or incomplete Star Ratings mitigation would delay earnings normalization. Base CaseCentral scenario $416.4357% Matches the consensus meanHumana broadly delivers its current outlook: at least $9.00 of adjusted EPS, approximately 25% individual Medicare Advantage membership growth, and an Insurance benefit ratio between 92.5% and 93.0%. CenterWell remains a growth contributor, but elevated medical costs and the 2026 Star Ratings headwind constrain near-term earnings recovery. Bull CaseUpside scenario $513.0018% Individual Medicare Advantage membership grows approximately 25%, CenterWell sustains strong patient growth, and the Insurance benefit ratio finishes below the 92.5% lower end of guidance. Better medical-cost execution and successful mitigation of the Star Ratings headwind would create upside to the present earnings outlook. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |