HubSpot Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

HubSpot Inc

HUBSNYSE

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySoftware - Application

Beta (adjusted)1.11

Intrinsic Value $424.62median of 6 methods · middle span $228-$826based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $217.45Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 95% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+95%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $11.1B

Shares Outstanding 52.3M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

HubSpot's Q2 2026 performance combined 20% reported revenue growth, 17% constant-currency growth, 14% customer growth, and substantial operating-margin expansion. The outlook nevertheless implies reported growth moderating to 14% in Q3, while execution of an AI-led product, pricing, and go-to-market transition introduces uncertainty.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets31 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$190.00

Mean target$242.61

High · most bullish analyst$320.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$190.0020%

The AI, pricing, packaging, and go-to-market transition disrupts conversion or monetization, causing revenue to miss guidance. Subscription gross-margin pressure persists, and higher infrastructure or commercial investment limits the expected operating leverage.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$242.6155%

Matches the consensus mean

Results remain broadly consistent with management's FY2026 outlook of $3.678-$3.686 billion of revenue and a 20.7%-20.8% non-GAAP operating margin. Growth moderates from Q2 levels as guided, but customer expansion and margin improvement continue.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$320.0025%

AI agents, simplified pricing, and the unified customer platform sustain growth above the Q3 guidance trajectory. Continued customer expansion and positive average subscription revenue per customer growth support durable top-line compounding, while operating leverage remains visible.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Q2 2026 revenue increased 20% as reported and 17% in constant currency, demonstrating continued demand at scale.
Customers increased 14% to 306,446 while average subscription revenue per customer increased 4% to $11,800.
Non-GAAP operating margin expanded to 20.3% from 17.0%, and quarterly non-GAAP free cash flow increased to $167.9 million.

Key Investment Risks

Q3 guidance implies reported revenue growth of 14%, a material moderation from Q2's 20% reported growth.
GAAP subscription margin declined to 83.7% from 85.7%, while non-GAAP subscription margin declined to 85.3% from 87.1%.
Execution depends on successful AI development and differentiation, pricing and packaging changes, customer retention, and compliance with evolving AI regulation.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.