Hub Group Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics Beta (adjusted)1.14 Intrinsic Value $37.46median of 6 methods · middle span $27-$43based on filings through 30 Sep 2025 Market Price $30.15Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 24% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.8B Enterprise Value $2B Shares Outstanding 60.2M diluted Moat Rating None Last ex-dividend5 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Hub Group is currently navigating a severe governance and accounting crisis, characterized by the restatement of its financial statements for 2023, 2024, and 2025 due to a $77 million understatement of purchased transportation costs and accounts payable. This has led to the abrupt departure of its long-time CFO and COO, delayed SEC filings, and a NASDAQ delisting notice. While the underlying business continues to generate solid operating cash flows ($194 million in preliminary 2025) and maintains a strong balance sheet with low net debt, the lack of reliable financial statements and heightened internal control risks overshadow its operational strengths. Investors should maintain a Hold position until the restated financials are filed and internal controls are remediated. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$29.00 Mean target$41.00 High · most bullish analyst$50.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $27.0015% The company fails to meet the NASDAQ filing deadlines, leading to delisting or further delayed restatements. The accounting probe uncovers deeper systemic issues, eroding customer and partner trust. Freight market conditions deteriorate further, causing revenue to fall below the guided $3.65 billion floor, while executive turnover disrupts daily operations. Base CaseCentral scenario $41.0060% Matches the consensus meanHub Group completes its financial restatements by the mid-September 2026 deadline, avoiding NASDAQ delisting. The company's revenue remains stable within the guided range of $3.65 billion to $3.95 billion, and capital expenditures are controlled between $35 million and $45 million. Operational performance remains steady but muted due to a soft freight environment, keeping the stock range-bound as the market digests the governance transition. Bull CaseUpside scenario $55.0025% The accounting errors are successfully resolved with minimal impact on cash flows, and the company files all delayed reports before the NASDAQ deadline. Intermodal volumes recover strongly as truckload capacity exits the market, driving revenue toward the high end of the $3.65–$3.95 billion guidance range. Remediated internal controls and a permanent CFO appointment restore investor confidence, leading to a valuation re-rating. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |