HSBC Holdings plc ADR Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryDiversified Banks Beta (adjusted)0.73 Intrinsic Value $38.67median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $95.82Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 60% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-60%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $327.8B Shares Outstanding 3.4B diluted Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary HSBC entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: first-half revenue and profit before tax excluding notable items each increased 6% on a constant-currency basis, annualised RoTE excluding notable items reached 19.1%, and management raised 2026 banking NII guidance to at least USD 46 billion. Wealth and transaction-banking fees, deposit growth, a 50% target dividend payout ratio and the resumption of buybacks support the investment case. Offsetting factors are limited CET1 headroom at 14.1%, a 2026 credit-cost outlook of approximately 45 basis points versus a 30-40 basis-point medium-term planning range, and continuing restructuring and portfolio-disposal effects. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$101.00 Mean target$106.08 High · most bullish analyst$115.24 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $101.0018% Lower rates or deposit repricing weaken banking NII, credit costs rise above the 2026 outlook, and restructuring or integration demands restrain operating leverage. CET1 falling below the management range would constrain distributions and weaken the shareholder-return case. Base CaseCentral scenario $106.0858% Matches the consensus meanHSBC broadly achieves its published targets: RoTE remains at or above 17% excluding notable items, 2026 banking NII reaches at least USD 46 billion, operating-expense growth remains disciplined and CET1 stays within the 14.0%-14.5% range. Credit costs remain around the approximately 45-basis-point 2026 outlook before moving toward the medium-term range. Bull CaseUpside scenario $115.2424% HSBC exceeds its target-basis return objectives as favourable interest rates sustain banking NII, wealth and transaction-banking fee growth remains strong, and simplification improves operating leverage. CET1 remains within the 14.0%-14.5% range while the bank continues dividends and buybacks. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |