HP Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustryComputer Hardware Beta (adjusted)1.12 Intrinsic Value $25.58median of 5 methods · middle span $20-$37based on filings through 31 Jul 2026 Market Price $32.15Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 20% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $29B Enterprise Value $34B Shares Outstanding 925M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date24 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend9 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary HP entered the final quarter of fiscal 2026 with strong revenue momentum and raised earnings and free-cash-flow guidance. Q3 revenue increased 12.5% year over year, led by 18% Personal Systems growth, while non-GAAP EPS rose 10.7%. The balance is less compelling: Personal Systems operating margin declined year over year, Printing revenue and Supplies revenue contracted, total Personal Systems units fell despite revenue growth, and HP remained under interim leadership. The issuer's last available quote was $30.52 on August 28, close to its $32.19 52-week high. These factors support a Hold rather than an aggressive accumulation recommendation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$18.00 Mean target$23.10 High · most bullish analyst$29.60 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $18.0024% Component and memory costs, supply constraints, tariffs or weaker demand compress Personal Systems margins while unit declines persist. Supplies contraction accelerates, reducing the contribution of Printing's high-margin recurring economics, and an extended permanent-CEO search increases strategic and execution uncertainty. Base CaseCentral scenario $23.1057% Matches the consensus meanHP delivers Q4 non-GAAP EPS within its $0.69-$0.79 guidance and fiscal 2026 free cash flow within $3.0-$3.2 billion. Personal Systems remains the growth engine, but margin pressure and declining Printing revenue limit the quality of that growth. Bull CaseUpside scenario $29.6019% Revenue momentum persists as premium devices, workstations and AI PCs support pricing and mix; Personal Systems margins stabilize; Printing retains an approximately high-teens operating margin; and fiscal 2026 free cash flow reaches or exceeds the raised range. Appointment of a credible permanent CEO would reduce execution uncertainty. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |