Hoyne Bancorp Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryRegional Banks Beta (adjusted)0.53 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $16.59Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $123.8M Enterprise Value $98.5M Shares Outstanding 7.5M diluted Next Earnings Date13 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Hoyne Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ: HYNE) recently completed its mutual-to-stock conversion in December 2025, raising substantial capital and resulting in an exceptionally strong Tier 1 leverage ratio of 27.8%. The bank is actively executing a strategic transition away from traditional low-yield 1-to-4 family residential mortgages toward higher-yielding commercial real estate (CRE) and commercial and industrial (C&I) loans, which now represent 56.2% of the portfolio. While this transition improves asset yields and interest rate risk profiles, the bank remains temporarily unprofitable, posting a net loss of $118,352 for Q1 2026. Given the early stage of its capital deployment and restructuring, a Hold recommendation is warranted until sustainable profitability is demonstrated. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $13.0015% The transition to commercial lending leads to credit quality deterioration or elevated non-performing assets. Operating expenses remain high due to regulatory compliance and talent acquisition, prolonging net losses and eroding the bank's capital base. Base CaseCentral scenario $18.5065% The bank successfully deploys its excess capital into high-yielding commercial loans while maintaining conservative underwriting standards. Net interest income continues to expand, offsetting elevated post-conversion compensation and operating expenses, leading to consistent profitability by late 2026 or early 2027. Bull CaseUpside scenario $20.0025% The bank rapidly deploys its post-conversion capital into high-yielding commercial real estate and C&I loans, achieving net interest margin expansion that outpaces rising operating costs. This drives a faster-than-expected return to profitability by mid-2026, supported by strong asset quality and successful digital platform adoption. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |