Howmet Aerospace Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Howmet Aerospace Inc

HWMNYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryAerospace & Defense

Beta (adjusted)1.14

Intrinsic Value $208.52median of 6 methods · middle span $90-$496based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $228.38Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 9% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $91.1B

Enterprise Value $94.6B

Shares Outstanding 401M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend7 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Howmet entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter revenue increased 24%, organic revenue increased 21%, adjusted EBITDA margin reached 32.1%, and management raised full-year revenue, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EPS, and free-cash-flow guidance. Commercial aerospace, defense aerospace, and gas-turbine demand were all expanding.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets20 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$256.56

Mean target$335.33

High · most bullish analyst$375.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$256.5615%

Results fall below the low end of raised guidance because customer production increases are delayed, supply or workforce constraints limit output, CAM integration underperforms, or commercial-transportation weakness persists. Higher capital requirements and acquisition-related leverage reduce capital-return flexibility.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$335.3358%

Matches the consensus mean

Howmet broadly achieves its raised FY 2026 guidance of $10.0-$10.1 billion revenue, 32.1%-32.2% adjusted EBITDA margin, $5.23-$5.31 adjusted EPS, and $1.85-$1.95 billion free cash flow. Aerospace and gas-turbine growth offset softer areas, while CAM integration and higher investment requirements remain manageable.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$375.0027%

Revenue and earnings finish near or above the high end of raised guidance as commercial-aircraft production, engine-spares demand, defense programs, and extraordinary gas-turbine demand remain strong. CAM integration stays on track, incremental capacity supports organic growth, and cash generation sustains repurchases and dividend growth.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 revenue increased 24% year over year, including 21% organic growth, while adjusted EBITDA increased 39% and adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 340 basis points to 32.1%.
Demand growth was broad: second-quarter commercial-aerospace revenue increased 28%, defense-aerospace revenue increased 11%, and gas-turbine revenue increased 38%.
Second-quarter free cash flow was $479 million, and year-to-date repurchases through July totaled $800 million; the third-quarter dividend increased 17% to $0.14 per share.

Key Investment Risks

The approximately $1.8 billion CAM acquisition introduces integration and leverage-execution risk even though management reported that integration was on track.
Management identified increasing capital-expenditure requirements, including a further expected increase in 2027, to support aerospace and gas-turbine growth.
Operating performance remains uneven outside the strongest markets: second-quarter Engineered Structures revenue declined 13%, while Forged Wheels commercial-transportation volume declined 8% year over year.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.