Houlihan Lokey Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Houlihan Lokey Inc

HLINYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryCapital Markets

Beta (adjusted)0.96

Intrinsic Value $164.86median of 6 methods · middle span $129-$176based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $128.38Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 28% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $9B

Enterprise Value $8.2B

Shares Outstanding 67.1M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend1 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Houlihan Lokey enters the balance of fiscal 2027 with a strong fiscal-2026 record, expanding senior talent and continued acquisition-led capability building, but near-term execution visibility has weakened. First-quarter fiscal-2027 revenue declined to $511 million from $605 million, Corporate Finance revenue fell 24%, and adjusted diluted EPS declined to $1.35 from $2.14. Management considers the Corporate Finance headwinds temporary but cannot identify when they will subside. The risk-reward is therefore balanced pending evidence of revenue stabilization, continued compensation discipline and successful completion of the Intrepid acquisition.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets8 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$145.00

Mean target$153.50

High · most bullish analyst$177.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$145.0020%

Corporate Finance weakness persists beyond management's temporary-headwind assessment, quarterly revenue falls below the latest $511 million baseline, and acquisition integration or closing delays weaken expected capability expansion. Continued earnings pressure would reduce confidence that fiscal-2026 performance represents a sustainable near-term run rate.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$153.5054%

Matches the consensus mean

Performance improves gradually after a weak first quarter, but timing and transaction-mix volatility keep results uneven. Financial and Valuation Advisory remains comparatively resilient, compensation stays near the adjusted 61.5% ratio, and Intrepid closes within the announced window.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$177.0026%

Corporate Finance headwinds prove temporary, transaction closings and fee mix normalize, Financial and Valuation Advisory sustains growth, and acquisitions broaden sector and geographic coverage without disrupting compensation discipline. The fiscal-2026 record and larger managing-director base provide operating capacity for renewed growth.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Fiscal 2026 produced record revenue of $2.62 billion and adjusted diluted EPS of $7.56.
Financial and Valuation Advisory revenue increased 13% year over year to $89 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, while its managing-director count increased to 47 from 45.
The planned Intrepid acquisition would add 34 financial professionals and materially expand oil-and-gas coverage; the Mellum transaction has already added and integrated 11 professionals in European real-estate capital advisory.

Key Investment Risks

First-quarter fiscal-2027 revenue declined to $511 million from $605 million, and adjusted diluted EPS declined to $1.35 from $2.14.
Corporate Finance revenue declined 24% year over year; management cited Middle East instability and technology-sector disruption and said the duration of these headwinds was difficult to determine.
Intrepid remained subject to regulatory approval and was expected to close before September 30, 2026, creating closing and integration execution risk.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.