Horizon Technology Finance Corp Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryAsset Management & Custody Banks Beta (adjusted)0.99 Intrinsic Value $3.34median of 6 methods · middle span $2-$7based on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $4.62Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 28% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $309.7M Enterprise Value $683.6M Shares Outstanding 68.3M diluted Next Earnings Date30 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend17 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Horizon Technology Finance Corp (HRZN) is a specialty finance BDC focused on venture-backed technology and life science companies. The company recently completed its strategic merger with Monroe Capital Corporation (MRCC) on April 14, 2026, significantly expanding its capital base and capacity profile. While HRZN continues to generate top-tier portfolio yields (over 15% in Q1 2026) and has declared special monthly distributions of $0.03 per share for July, August, and September 2026 alongside its regular $0.06 monthly distributions, it faces a challenging macroeconomic backdrop. Elevated interest rates and a tight venture capital funding environment continue to pressure early-stage borrowers, keeping credit quality and non-accruals as key watch items. A 'Hold' recommendation is appropriate as the company works to deploy its newly acquired capital and navigate near-term merger integration expenses. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$4.25 Mean target$5.35 High · most bullish analyst$6.50 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Persistent macroeconomic headwinds and high interest rates lead to a spike in portfolio company defaults and non-accruals. The $4.3 million non-recurring merger transaction expense in Q2 2026, combined with credit losses, pressures NAV and temporarily dilutes earnings coverage of distributions. Base CaseCentral scenario The integration of the MRCC merger proceeds smoothly, allowing HRZN to deploy its expanded capital base into high-yield venture loans. Net investment income remains stable, covering the regular monthly distributions of $0.06 per share and the special distributions of $0.03 per share. Credit quality remains manageable despite high interest rates. Bull CaseUpside scenario The planned merger with Monroe Capital Corporation (MRCC) closes on schedule, expanding the capital base and net investment income (NII) meaningfully, while the $154 million committed backlog successfully converts into productive, high-yielding venture loans. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |