Honeywell International Inc. Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryIndustrial Conglomerates Beta (adjusted)0.90 Intrinsic Value $227.60median of 6 methods · middle span $195-$294based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $213.80Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 6% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $67.8B Enterprise Value $90.5B Shares Outstanding 316.9M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Honeywell International has completed its transformation into Honeywell Technologies, a focused automation company serving building, industrial and process markets. Second-quarter evidence was constructive: continuing-company orders increased 16%, organic sales increased 4%, backlog reached approximately $20 billion, segment margin expanded 100 basis points to 19.0%, and adjusted EPS increased 10%. Management consequently raised its 2026 organic-growth, margin and adjusted-EPS guidance. The longer-term case rests on converting the installed base, Forge intelligence layer and Accelerator operating system into 4%-6% organic growth, more than 60 basis points of annual margin expansion and more than 10% annual earnings growth. Offsetting those merits are weak Process Automation and Technology organic growth, the need to execute after several major separations and divestitures, exposure to tariffs, inflation and industrial cyclicality, and substantial differences between GAAP and adjusted results. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$186.00 Mean target$264.53 High · most bullish analyst$303.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $186.0020% Process Automation and Technology remains weak, industrial demand slows, inflation or tariffs pressure pricing and productivity, and separation-related complexity prevents the company from reaching the lower bounds of its growth, margin or cash-flow guidance. The market then discounts the quality of adjusted earnings and applies a lower valuation to the post-spin company. Base CaseCentral scenario $264.5356% Matches the consensus meanThe company delivers its 2026 guidance of 3%-4% organic growth, 20.1%-20.5% segment margin, $8.05-$8.35 adjusted EPS and approximately $2.0 billion of free cash flow, followed by gradual progress toward the three-year framework. Building Automation strength and backlog conversion offset uneven process-market mix and ordinary post-separation execution costs. Bull CaseUpside scenario $303.0024% The automation-focused portfolio realizes management's three-year framework: orders convert efficiently from the approximately $20 billion backlog, organic growth approaches the upper end of 4%-6%, annual margin expansion exceeds 60 basis points, and earnings compound above 10%. Building Automation remains strong while process and industrial demand accelerate, supporting a premium valuation for the simplified company. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |