Honda Motor ADR Dossier - Source-backed chat

Honda Motor ADR

HMCTokyo Stock Exchange

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryAutomobile Manufacturers

Beta (adjusted)0.62

Intrinsic Value $68.65median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 31 Mar 2025

Market Price $31.62Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 117% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+117%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $41B

Shares Outstanding 1.3B diluted

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend30 Mar 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Honda entered FY2027 with record first-quarter operating profit and raised full-year operating-profit guidance, while its motorcycle and financial-services franchises support a multiyear effort to rebuild automobile profitability. The counterweight is pronounced automobile-volume weakness outside Japan, especially in China, alongside substantial execution requirements in hybrids, manufacturing efficiency and vehicle-development reform. The recommendation is a valuation-unanchored Hold rather than a price-driven call.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets2 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$32.00

Mean target$32.90

High · most bullish analyst$33.80

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$32.0024%

China weakness persists, worldwide automobile production deteriorates further, and restructuring benefits arrive too slowly to sustain FY2027 guidance or Honda's FY2029 profit objective. A material guidance reduction or dividend cut would indicate that transition costs are overwhelming the resilience of motorcycles and financial services.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$32.9055%

Matches the consensus mean

Honda preserves much of the strong first-quarter earnings performance and executes its hybrid-led restructuring gradually, but weak China production and uneven global automobile volumes limit the speed of improvement.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$33.8021%

The first-quarter profit improvement proves durable; motorcycle and financial-services profitability funds the transition; next-generation hybrids, lower system costs and improved production efficiency restore automobile earnings; and Honda remains on course for operating profit above JPY 1.4 trillion in FY2029.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

First-quarter FY2027 consolidated operating profit reached JPY 530,767 million, the highest quarterly result in Honda's published series.
Honda is targeting consolidated operating profit above JPY 1.4 trillion in FY2029, supported by automobile restructuring and continued motorcycle and financial-services profitability.
The FY2027 dividend forecast remains JPY 70 per share, and Honda states a policy of stable, continuous dividends targeting DOE of approximately 3.0%.

Key Investment Risks

July 2026 worldwide automobile production was 96.7% of the prior-year level, marking a sixth consecutive month of year-over-year decline.
July 2026 China automobile production fell to 24.9% of the prior-year level, highlighting acute competitive and volume pressure.
The FY2029 profit objective depends on successful hybrid reallocation, cost reduction, faster development and an approximately 20% production-efficiency improvement over five years.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.