Holley Inc Dossier
|
SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryAutomotive Parts & Equipment Beta (adjusted)1.21 Intrinsic Value $4.10median of 6 methods · middle span $4-$14based on filings through 28 Jun 2026 Market Price $2.38Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 72% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+72%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $288.5M Enterprise Value $746.3M Shares Outstanding 121.5M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Holley Inc. (HLLY) represents a compelling turnaround and value play in the high-performance automotive aftermarket. Despite near-term headwinds from elevated distributor inventory and severe winter weather in early 2026, the company has demonstrated robust cost control, expanding its Adjusted EBITDA margin to 18.5% in Q1 2026. The core investment thesis centers on its portfolio of iconic enthusiast brands, strong pricing power, and a clear path toward deleveraging from its current elevated debt levels. As distributor inventories normalize and operational efficiencies from its portfolio optimization take hold, Holley is well-positioned for significant free cash flow generation and multiple expansion. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$3.50 Mean target$4.54 High · most bullish analyst$7.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $3.8015% Persistent high interest rates and inflationary pressures dampen discretionary enthusiast spending. Operational disruptions during the ERP/WMS transition or failure to pass through tariff costs lead to margin compression. High debt levels remain a structural overhang, limiting growth investments and keeping the stock range-bound. Base CaseCentral scenario $4.7060% Steady core growth of 3-4% driven by normalized aftermarket trends and continued share gains in key verticals. Cost-saving initiatives and portfolio pruning support Adjusted EBITDA margins around 19-20%. The company continues to generate positive free cash flow, steadily paying down debt and reducing leverage toward 3.0x by 2027-2028. Bull CaseUpside scenario $6.1425% Distributor inventory normalizes rapidly, and enthusiast demand accelerates across all four vertical groupings. Successful execution of the ERP/WMS transition and portfolio optimization drives Adjusted EBITDA margins above 21%, accelerating debt paydown. Leverage falls below 3.0x ahead of schedule, removing the 'leverage discount' and triggering a major valuation re-rating. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |