HMH Holding Inc Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Equipment & Services Beta (adjusted)1.00 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $17.36Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $207.4M Enterprise Value $285.5M Shares Outstanding 12M diluted Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary HMH Holding Inc. (NASDAQ: HMH) is a leading provider of highly engineered, mission-critical equipment, digital solutions, and lifecycle services for the offshore and onshore oil and gas drilling industries. Following its successful IPO in April 2026, the company is well-positioned to capitalize on a cyclical recovery in offshore drilling, particularly in deepwater and ultra-deepwater floater markets. Although Q1 2026 revenue declined 14% year-over-year due to lower starting backlog, a strong book-to-bill ratio of 1.3x and robust order momentum of $218 million signal a significant reacceleration in the second half of 2026. Furthermore, the company's high-margin aftermarket services and spare parts segments provide a resilient, recurring revenue stream that mitigates the cyclicality of new-build hardware sales. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$26.00 Mean target$28.57 High · most bullish analyst$32.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $26.0020% Global macroeconomic volatility or geopolitical disruptions in key offshore regions lead to capital expenditure deferrals by major drilling contractors. Project slippage and supply chain bottlenecks delay backlog conversion, causing revenue and EBITDA to miss guidance. Base CaseCentral scenario $28.5750% Matches the consensus meanSteady recovery in the offshore drilling cycle supports the company's book-to-bill ratio above 1.0x. Aftermarket services and spare parts continue to represent approximately three-quarters of total revenue, maintaining Adjusted EBITDA margins around 17-18%. The company meets its FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $157M-$177M. Bull CaseUpside scenario $32.0030% Accelerated offshore rig reactivations and deepwater drilling demand drive a surge in high-margin spare parts and aftermarket services. Backlog converts faster than expected, and the company exceeds the high end of its FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $157M-$177M, leading to multiple expansion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |