Hippo Holdings Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryProperty & Casualty Insurance Beta (adjusted)1.37 Intrinsic Value $38.22median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $31.51Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 21% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $831.5M Enterprise Value $634.9M Shares Outstanding 27.3M diluted Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Hippo Holdings Inc. (HIPO) is successfully transitioning from a high-growth, unprofitable insurtech to a diversified, structurally profitable carrier platform. The company has achieved its fourth consecutive quarter of positive net income in Q1 2026, driven by robust underwriting discipline, a lower expense ratio, and a significant reduction in catastrophe losses. By leveraging its advanced technology stack (including AI-powered tools like Clara and Hannah) and expanding into higher-margin commercial and casualty lines, Hippo is well-positioned to meet its long-term 2028 targets of $2 billion in GWP and an 18% adjusted ROE. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$33.00 Mean target$39.75 High · most bullish analyst$45.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $30.0020% Severe weather events and rising reinsurance costs compress underwriting margins, pushing the combined ratio above 105%. Mix shifts and contraction in the Renters line drag down net written premium growth, while execution risks in commercial lines slow down top-line momentum, keeping adjusted net income at the low end of guidance. Base CaseCentral scenario $38.0050% Hippo delivers on its updated FY 2026 guidance, with GWP reaching $1.45–$1.525 billion and revenue growing to $560–$570 million. Underwriting improvements and steady operating leverage maintain a combined ratio near 103–105%, resulting in full-year adjusted net income of $48–$56 million. The stock rerates toward historical peer multiples as profitability is sustained. Bull CaseUpside scenario $37.7530% Rapid scaling of commercial multi-peril and casualty lines combined with deeper AI integration drives underwriting efficiency far past expectations. Favorable weather patterns keep catastrophe losses well below the 13% target, allowing Hippo to exceed the high end of its FY 2026 adjusted net income guidance ($56 million) and accelerate its path to the 2028 targets. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |