Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc

HLTNYSE

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryHotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines

Beta (adjusted)1.04

Intrinsic Value $286.66median of 5 methods · middle span $283-$312based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $315.44Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 9% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $71B

Enterprise Value $83.4B

Shares Outstanding 227M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend21 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Hilton's operating momentum supports a constructive long-term view: second-quarter comparable RevPAR rose 3.9%, net unit growth was 6.1%, and the development pipeline reached 541,300 rooms. Management consequently projected FY2026 comparable RevPAR growth of 3.0%-3.5%, while its published unit-growth outlook remained 6%-7%. The offset is execution and cycle sensitivity: the pipeline depends on third-party owners, travel demand can weaken, and Hilton issued $1.0 billion of senior notes while continuing substantial capital returns.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets26 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$270.00

Mean target$352.85

High · most bullish analyst$394.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$270.0018%

Travel demand weakens enough to push comparable RevPAR growth below 3%, net unit growth falls below 6%, or the development pipeline contracts below 520,000 rooms as owner financing, construction or conversion activity slows. Hilton's indebtedness and capital-return commitments could amplify sensitivity to weaker operating performance.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$352.8558%

Matches the consensus mean

Hilton delivers FY2026 comparable RevPAR growth within the stated 3.0%-3.5% range and net unit growth within its 6%-7% outlook, with the development pipeline remaining above its year-end 2025 level. This supports continued operating growth but does not establish valuation upside.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$394.0024%

Hilton delivers RevPAR growth at or above the 3.5% upper end of FY2026 guidance, net unit growth reaches or exceeds 7%, and the 541,300-room pipeline continues expanding and converting into openings. Strong owner demand, conversions and the Hilton Honors network would reinforce fee growth.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 system-wide comparable RevPAR increased 3.9% on a currency-neutral basis, and Hilton projected FY2026 growth of 3.0%-3.5%.
Net unit growth was 6.1% at June 30, 2026, while the development pipeline reached 541,300 rooms, 6% above the prior-year level.
Hilton reported more than 260 million Hilton Honors members, supporting its direct-booking ecosystem and network effect.

Key Investment Risks

Hospitality demand is cyclical; weaker macroeconomic or travel conditions could cause RevPAR to fall below Hilton's guidance range.
Pipeline conversion depends on third-party owners, construction activity and financing conditions, so approved rooms may not translate into openings on schedule.
Hilton issued $1.0 billion of 5.500% senior notes due 2031 while reporting $2.034 billion of year-to-date capital returns through July, increasing the importance of sustained operating cash generation.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.