Hilton Grand Vacations Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryResorts & Casinos Beta (adjusted)1.34 Intrinsic Value $97.24median of 6 methods · middle span $42-$249based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $34.83Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 179% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+179%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.7B Enterprise Value $7.3B Shares Outstanding 79.3M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) presents a compelling investment opportunity as it transitions from an intensive integration phase to a highly cash-generative operational phase. Following the rapid integration of Bluegreen Vacations and the successful rollout of the HGV Max program, the company is poised to capture significant cost and revenue synergies. Management's proactive capital allocation—highlighted by a consistent $150 million quarterly share buyback cadence, the strategic acquisition of full control over the Elara property in Las Vegas, and the planned disposition of noncore legacy assets—underpins a robust outlook. Despite macroeconomic headwinds impacting near-term Volume Per Guest (VPG) metrics, HGV's resilient recurring club fees, high-margin financing business, and strong tour flow momentum support substantial EBITDA expansion and margin improvement through 2026 and 2027. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$46.00 Mean target$56.60 High · most bullish analyst$74.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $46.00 A prolonged macroeconomic slowdown severely dampens consumer discretionary spending, leading to a sharp decline in timeshare contract sales and tour flow. Tightened credit conditions and rising interest rates pressure the financing segment, causing annualized default rates to climb well into the mid-teens and forcing higher loan loss provisions. Integration friction or persistent inventory overhang limits free cash flow generation, stalling share buybacks and keeping net leverage elevated near 4.0x. Base CaseCentral scenario $56.60 Matches the consensus meanHGV successfully delivers on its raised full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.225 billion to $1.265 billion, supported by low single-digit contract sales growth and sequential EBITDA improvement. The Elara acquisition contributes approximately $20 million to 2026 EBITDA, and the disposition of eight noncore properties progresses smoothly. Share repurchases continue at a steady pace of $150 million per quarter, and net leverage gradually moderates from 3.9x. VPG remains pressured in Q2 and Q3 before recovering in Q4 as year-over-year comparisons ease. Bull CaseUpside scenario $74.00 Accelerated synergy capture from the Bluegreen Vacations acquisition exceeds the $100 million run-rate target, while integration and inventory capital expenditures decline faster than projected. Tour flow momentum from strategic partnerships (e.g., Bass Pro, Hilton) drives higher-than-expected new buyer transactions, offsetting VPG compression. Strong securitization markets and lower funding costs boost free cash flow conversion to the upper end of the 55%-65% target range, enabling upsized share repurchases and rapid deleveraging below 3.0x net leverage. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |