Hilltop Holdings Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryFinancial Conglomerates Beta (adjusted)0.93 Intrinsic Value $35.37median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $37.93Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 7% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.2B Enterprise Value $1.6B Shares Outstanding 57.2M diluted Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend7 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH) presents a balanced risk-reward profile as of mid-2026. The company's diversified business model—spanning regional banking (PlainsCapital Bank), mortgage origination (PrimeLending), and broker-dealer services (HilltopSecurities)—provides a cushion against cyclical headwinds. PlainsCapital Bank continues to deliver solid performance with net interest margin expansion and healthy loan growth. However, the mortgage origination segment remains highly sensitive to volatile interest rates, and rising commercial real estate exposure (comprising approximately 43% of the banking portfolio) presents credit quality risks. While the company maintains an exceptionally strong capital position (CET1 of 19.1%) and a consistent track record of returning capital to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, sequential earnings declines and macroeconomic uncertainties warrant a cautious Hold stance. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$42.00 Mean target$42.00 High · most bullish analyst$42.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $42.00 Persistent inflation forces interest rates higher, severely dampening mortgage volumes and causing deposit flight or higher funding costs at PlainsCapital Bank. Credit quality deteriorates in the commercial real estate portfolio, leading to a significant build-up in the provision for credit losses and compressing consolidated profitability. Base CaseCentral scenario $42.00 Matches the consensus meanInterest rates remain volatile but stable, allowing PlainsCapital Bank to sustain a net interest margin around 3.30%-3.40%. PrimeLending operates near break-even or modest profitability as origination volumes slowly recover. HilltopSecurities continues to generate steady fee income from public finance and wealth management. Capital returns continue via the quarterly dividend and opportunistic share repurchases. Bull CaseUpside scenario $42.00 A rapid decline in mortgage interest rates triggers a strong rebound in residential homebuying, driving substantial volume and margin expansion at PrimeLending. Concurrently, PlainsCapital Bank maintains stable deposit costs while expanding its loan portfolio in the robust Texas market, leading to significant positive operating leverage and earnings beats. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |