HF Sinclair Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

HF Sinclair Corp

DINONYSE

SectorEnergy

IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Beta (adjusted)0.79

Intrinsic Value $151.01median of 6 methods · middle span $49-$533based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $112.70Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 34% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $20B

Enterprise Value $20.5B

Shares Outstanding 178.2M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend11 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

HF Sinclair entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter refinery utilization reached 94.3%, refining margins benefited from steady demand, tight supply and favorable crack spreads, and Renewables and Lubricants & Specialties improved materially. The planned separation of Lubricants & Specialties could sharpen strategic focus, but execution, Mississauga retirement costs and the inherent cyclicality of refining temper the case.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets15 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$67.00

Mean target$90.33

High · most bullish analyst$114.00

Street targets sit below today's price; our intrinsic value sits above it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$67.0023%

Refining cracks and demand weaken, operational interruptions reduce utilization, renewable-fuel economics deteriorate, or the separation and Mississauga retirement incur greater costs or delays than contemplated.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$90.3356%

Matches the consensus mean

Refining conditions normalize from the unusually strong second quarter while operations remain reliable, diversified businesses provide partial stability, and the announced separation advances broadly on schedule.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$114.0021%

Strong refining fundamentals persist, Renewables continues benefiting from improved RIN prices and producer tax credits, and the Lubricants & Specialties separation is completed within the announced 12–18-month window without material disruption.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 refinery utilization was 94.3%, with adjusted refinery gross margin of $25.95 per produced barrel and crude charge of 639,680 barrels per day.
Renewables and Lubricants & Specialties delivered substantially stronger second-quarter results, while Midstream adjusted EBITDA remained stable.
The planned tax-efficient separation of Lubricants & Specialties offers a potential strategic-focus catalyst, and the quarterly dividend was increased 5% to $0.525 per share.

Key Investment Risks

Earnings remain highly sensitive to refined-product demand, crude and product supply, crack spreads and refinery operating reliability.
The Lubricants & Specialties separation may be delayed, abandoned or fail to achieve its intended benefits, while the Mississauga retirement may produce costs or liabilities beyond expectations.
Renewables performance depends materially on RIN prices, producer tax credits and changing environmental and fuel-policy requirements.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.