Hexcel Corp Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryAerospace & Defense Beta (adjusted)1.04 Intrinsic Value $85.43median of 6 methods · middle span $71-$130based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $86.74Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 2% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $6.6B Enterprise Value $7.5B Shares Outstanding 75.5M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend10 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Hexcel Corporation is a global leader in advanced lightweight composites, uniquely positioned to benefit from the multi-year secular recovery and build-rate acceleration in commercial aerospace (Airbus A350/A320 and Boeing 787/737 MAX). While Q1 2026 results demonstrated outstanding operational leverage with a significant EPS beat ($0.59 vs. $0.43 consensus) and gross margin expansion to 26.9%, the broader market remains cautious. Near-term headwinds including supply chain constraints (specifically engine availability limiting A320 volumes), strategic divestment drags in the defense segment, and macroeconomic uncertainties keep the consensus recommendation at a Hold. However, strong free cash flow generation and sole-source positions on key next-generation platforms provide a solid long-term floor. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$90.00 Mean target$109.92 High · most bullish analyst$126.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $90.00 Prolonged supply chain disruptions, persistent engine shortages, or production halts at Boeing severely restrict aircraft delivery rates. Additionally, elevated oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East compress airline capital expenditures, leading to destocking and downward revisions in Hexcel's guidance. Base CaseCentral scenario $109.92 Matches the consensus meanCommercial aerospace recovery continues at a measured pace with Airbus A320 volumes at the lower end of guidance due to engine constraints, offset by strong A350 and Boeing 787/737 MAX ramps. Full-year 2026 sales land within the guided $2.0-2.1 billion range, with adjusted EPS of $2.10-2.30. Bull CaseUpside scenario $126.00 Accelerated build rates by Airbus and Boeing exceed expectations, combined with rapid stabilization of the aerospace supply chain. Operating leverage expands faster than anticipated as Hexcel grows into its existing capacity, driving gross margins above 28% and full-year EPS toward the high end of guidance. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |