Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co Dossier - Source-backed chat

Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co

HPENYSE

SectorInformation Technology

IndustryTechnology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals

Beta (adjusted)1.28

Intrinsic Value $57.44median of 6 methods · middle span $20-$118based on filings through 31 Jul 2026

Market Price $64.58Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 11% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $85.7B

Enterprise Value $99B

Shares Outstanding 1.4B diluted

Moat Rating None

Last ex-dividend16 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

HPE entered the fiscal third-quarter report with strong operating momentum: fiscal second-quarter revenue increased 40% year over year, profitability exceeded management's outlook, free cash flow reached a second-quarter record, and management raised FY2026 guidance while introducing an FY2027 framework calling for further revenue, EPS, and cash-flow growth. The operational evidence is constructive, particularly in Networking and Cloud & AI.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets19 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$28.00

Mean target$65.24

High · most bullish analyst$80.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

Results fall below the raised outlook as Juniper integration becomes more complex, component costs or supply constraints pressure profitability, or demand moderates after the recent infrastructure and AI expansion. Missing the lower bounds of the EPS or free-cash-flow guidance would weaken the evidence that the post-acquisition improvement is durable.

Base CaseCentral scenario

HPE delivers within its raised FY2026 ranges, including 29% to 33% revenue growth, non-GAAP diluted EPS of $3.35 to $3.45, and at least $3.5 billion of free cash flow, followed by more moderate growth in FY2027.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

HPE exceeds the upper ends of its FY2026 guidance ranges as AI infrastructure demand remains healthy, the combined networking portfolio sustains strong demand, and Juniper integration and cost synergies continue ahead of schedule. Progress toward the FY2027 framework would reinforce the view that the post-acquisition earnings and cash-flow step-up is durable.

Key Investment Merits

Fiscal second-quarter revenue reached $10.7 billion, up 40% year over year, while non-GAAP gross margin rose to 36.9% and non-GAAP diluted EPS reached $0.79.
Management raised FY2026 guidance and introduced an FY2027 framework of 8% to 12% revenue growth, 12% to 16% non-GAAP diluted EPS growth, and at least $4.5 billion of free cash flow.

Key Investment Risks

Realizing the expected strategic and financial benefits requires successful integration of Juniper Networks and continued delivery of planned cost synergies.
Component costs, commodity availability, trade restrictions, geopolitical conditions, and changes in demand could undermine the raised revenue, profitability, and cash-flow outlook.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.