Hershey Co Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustryConfectionery Beta (adjusted)0.40 Intrinsic Value $202.72median of 6 methods · middle span $181-$471based on filings through 28 Jun 2026 Market Price $159.30Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 27% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $32B Enterprise Value $36.4B Shares Outstanding 202.8M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Hershey entered the second half of 2026 with strong reported momentum: first-half net sales increased 8.7%, organic constant-currency sales increased 5.8%, and adjusted diluted EPS increased 28.4%. Management consequently narrowed FY2026 guidance toward the upper half of its prior ranges. The quality of growth remains mixed, however. Second-quarter organic volume/mix declined approximately 8%, including a roughly 10-point decline in North America Confectionery, while Salty Snacks organic growth was only 0.6% despite stronger measured retail takeaway and International volume declined approximately 8%. The resulting stance is Hold: pricing, productivity and innovation support earnings recovery, but elasticity and execution must improve before the recovery can be treated as durable. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$170.00 Mean target$205.81 High · most bullish analyst$250.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $170.0024% Price elasticity persists, consolidated volume/mix remains near or below the second-quarter decline, and execution constraints prevent Salty Snacks shipments from matching retail demand. Continued International weakness and commodity, logistics or tariff pressure would then make the updated guidance difficult to achieve. Base CaseCentral scenario $205.8158% Matches the consensus meanHershey delivers within its updated FY2026 ranges of 4.5%-5.0% reported net-sales growth, 3.0%-3.5% organic growth and 32.5%-35% adjusted diluted-EPS growth, while volume pressure moderates only gradually. Strong pricing and approximately $100 million of transformation savings offset continued investment and execution friction. Bull CaseUpside scenario $250.0018% Pricing proves more resilient than the second-quarter volume decline implies, innovation and brand investment sustain demand, and management delivers near the top of its 2026 sales and adjusted-EPS guidance. Over the medium term, more than $1.5 billion of planned innovation sales and technology-enabled supply-chain productivity strengthen the growth profile. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |