Hercules Capital Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Hercules Capital Inc

HTGCNYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryAsset Management

Beta (adjusted)0.87

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $16.94Price as of 1 Oct 2026

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Market Cap $3.2B

Enterprise Value $5.5B

Shares Outstanding 204.9M diluted

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend11 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Hercules Capital (NYSE: HTGC) is the premier specialty finance company focused on venture debt, serving as the 'gold standard' of Business Development Companies (BDCs). Despite private lending market volatility and concerns over AI-driven disruption in the software sector, Hercules continues to deliver robust financial performance. In Q1 2026, the company generated record total investment income of $141.5 million and net investment income of $88.1 million ($0.48 per share), providing a comfortable 120% coverage of its base cash distribution. With a highly conservative credit profile—non-accruals at just 0.1% of fair value—and over $1.0 billion in platform liquidity, Hercules is exceptionally well-positioned to navigate a fluctuating interest rate environment and selectively deploy capital into high-growth technology and life sciences sectors.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets9 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$15.50

Mean target$19.17

High · most bullish analyst$25.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Industry-leading credit quality with non-accruals representing only 0.2% of portfolio cost and 0.1% of fair value as of Q1 2026.
Strong dividend coverage with Q1 2026 NII of $0.48 per share covering the $0.40 base distribution by 120%, backed by $149.1 million ($0.80 per share) in undistributed earnings spillover.
Robust liquidity position with over $1.0 billion in platform liquidity (including managed Adviser Funds) to support portfolio companies and capture new originations.
First-mover advantage and scale in the venture debt market, allowing the company to secure high-quality, senior secured first-lien structures with valuable warrant kickers.

Key Investment Risks

Concentration risk in the technology sector, specifically within software/SaaS companies that face potential disruption from artificial intelligence.
Rising interest expenses and funding costs as older, lower-cost debt matures and is replaced with higher-yield notes.
Potential compression of net interest margins if the Federal Reserve initiates aggressive interest rate cuts, impacting the yield on floating-rate loans.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.