Herc Holdings Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryRental & Leasing Services Beta (adjusted)1.57 Intrinsic Value $91.61median of 4 methods · middle span $57-$126based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $131.86Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 31% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $4.4B Enterprise Value $12.3B Shares Outstanding 35.6M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend29 May 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI) represents a compelling investment opportunity in the equipment rental sector, driven by the successful integration of its transformative H&E Equipment Services acquisition. This transaction has significantly expanded Herc's scale, adding 25% more specialty locations, deepening its sales network, and increasing density in highly resilient metropolitan markets. Despite near-term integration costs and elevated leverage, Herc's robust top-line momentum, strong free cash flow generation, and strategic shift toward higher-margin specialty solutions position it to capture outsized market share from ongoing non-residential construction, infrastructure, and AI-driven capital expenditure trends. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$115.00 Mean target$183.08 High · most bullish analyst$240.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects a potential macroeconomic slowdown or prolonged downturn in commercial construction, leading to lower fleet utilization and pricing pressure. Integration of H&E could face operational friction, resulting in higher-than-expected costs. Elevated leverage (3.96x) could limit financial flexibility, and persistent high interest rates would continue to weigh on net income, delaying the deleveraging timeline. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes successful execution of the three-year synergy plan following the H&E acquisition, with Herc capturing its targeted $100 million to $120 million in revenue synergies and $125 million in cumulative cost synergies by year-end 2026. Non-residential construction and infrastructure spending remain robust, supporting steady fleet utilization and pricing power. Herc successfully deleverages toward its 2.0x to 3.0x target by year-end 2027, driving significant margin expansion and earnings recovery. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |