Herbalife Ltd Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustryPackaged Foods Beta (adjusted)0.92 Intrinsic Value $33.53median of 5 methods · middle span $13-$49based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $12.28Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 173% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+173%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.3B Enterprise Value $2.9B Shares Outstanding 108.6M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend28 Feb 2014 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Herbalife Ltd. (NYSE: HLF) presents a compelling turnaround opportunity. The company is successfully executing its operational efficiency program, stabilizing its top-line growth, and aggressively expanding its high-margin personalization ecosystem through strategic acquisitions (Bioniq, Pro2col, Pruvit). Despite persistent headwinds in China, standout performance in the Asia-Pacific region (led by India) and Latin America drove a strong Q1 2026 earnings beat. Furthermore, the successful completion of a $1.45 billion senior secured debt refinancing in April 2026 significantly reduces interest expenses and extends its maturity profile, enhancing financial flexibility. Trading at a conservative forward P/E multiple relative to historical averages and peers, the stock offers substantial valuation upside. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$9.00 Mean target$17.00 High · most bullish analyst$25.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $9.00 The bear case is triggered by prolonged weakness in China and North America, distributor attrition, and negative foreign exchange fluctuations. Regulatory scrutiny on the direct-selling model or failure to scale the personalized nutrition acquisitions could compress margins and limit valuation upside. Base CaseCentral scenario $17.00 Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes steady execution of the 2026 strategic plan, with net sales growth matching the mid-to-high end of guidance (1.5% to 5.5% constant currency) and adjusted EBITDA reaching approximately $690 million. Refinancing benefits yield $45 million in annual cash interest savings, supporting debt paydown and leverage reduction to ~2.0x. Bull CaseUpside scenario $25.00 The bull case is driven by rapid adoption of the Pro2col and Bioniq personalized nutrition platforms, accelerating growth in India and Latin America, and a faster-than-expected recovery in China. Under this scenario, operating margins expand significantly due to refinancing interest savings and digital platform efficiencies, driving multiple expansion toward historical averages. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |