Henry Schein Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Henry Schein Inc

HSICNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryMedical Distribution

Beta (adjusted)0.87

Intrinsic Value $77.33median of 6 methods · middle span $67-$94based on filings through 27 Jun 2026

Market Price $84.93Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 9% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $9.5B

Enterprise Value $11.6B

Shares Outstanding 113.2M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Henry Schein entered the second half of 2026 with improving operating momentum: second-quarter sales rose 6.7%, internal sales growth reached 4.6%, non-GAAP diluted EPS increased 15.5%, and management raised full-year sales and EPS guidance. Technology and dental merchandise were particularly strong, while the value-creation program offers additional earnings support. Execution, supplier, cybersecurity, acquisition-integration, tariff, and macroeconomic risks therefore balance the improving earnings outlook.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets16 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$64.00

Mean target$97.56

High · most bullish analyst$112.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$64.0024%

The bear case assumes sales growth falls below the raised guidance range, the value-creation program misses its year-end run-rate objective, and supplier, tariff, cybersecurity, integration, or macroeconomic pressures constrain margins and earnings. Under that combination, the shares could retrace toward $70.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$97.5658%

Matches the consensus mean

The base case assumes Henry Schein delivers within its raised FY2026 guidance of 4.5%-5.5% sales growth and $5.29-$5.39 non-GAAP diluted EPS, while value-creation benefits arrive broadly on schedule.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$112.0018%

The bull case assumes sustained internal growth near or above the second-quarter rate, continued strength in technology and dental merchandise, realization of the planned $125 million year-end value-creation run-rate, and successful conversion of those benefits into the double-digit earnings growth management expects in 2027.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 total sales increased 6.7%, including 4.6% internal growth, while non-GAAP diluted EPS increased 15.5%.
Management raised FY2026 guidance to 4.5%-5.5% sales growth and $5.29-$5.39 of non-GAAP diluted EPS.
The value-creation program targets a $125 million operating-income run-rate by year-end 2026 and more than $200 million of annual improvement within the next few years.
Henry Schein repurchased $325 million of shares during the first half of 2026 and retained $455 million of authorization at quarter-end.

Key Investment Risks

Execution risk remains material because the outlook depends on restructuring and value-creation initiatives producing their anticipated benefits.
The company identifies supplier dependence, supply-chain disruption, tariffs, foreign-exchange movements, and geopolitical developments as potential sources of adverse variance.
Cybersecurity remains a relevant operating risk following the October 2023 incident and because the company relies on information systems and technology products.
Acquisitions and joint ventures can create integration challenges, strain operational and control functions, and fail to deliver anticipated synergies.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.