Hennessy Advisors Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryAsset Management & Custody Banks Beta (adjusted)0.73 Intrinsic Value $8.68median of 6 methods · middle span $8-$15based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $10.39Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 17% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $82.1M Enterprise Value $87M Shares Outstanding 7.9M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Last ex-dividend21 May 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Hennessy Advisors Inc. (HNNA) is a boutique asset manager that has historically grown through strategic asset acquisitions. While the firm maintains a strong cash position and has recently raised its quarterly dividend to $0.15 per share (representing an attractive annualized yield of ~6.0%), it faces persistent headwinds from organic net outflows in its mutual fund lineup. The upcoming full redemption of its $40.25 million 4.875% notes due June 30, 2026, will eliminate its outstanding public debt, improving capital structure but reducing its cash cushion. Given the declining average AUM trend and lack of strong organic growth catalysts, a Hold recommendation is warranted. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $8.0020% Persistent net outflows continue to plague the mutual fund lineup, and a broader market correction reduces total AUM below $3.5 billion. The loss of high-margin advisory fees pressures operating margins, potentially threatening the sustainability of the recently increased dividend. Base CaseCentral scenario $10.5065% The company successfully completes the redemption of its 2026 notes, eliminating its debt service obligations. AUM stabilizes around $4.0 billion to $4.3 billion, supported by market appreciation and the integration of the STF Management ETFs, offsetting ongoing mutual fund outflows. The dividend is maintained at $0.15 per share quarterly. Bull CaseUpside scenario $14.0020% AUM rebounds strongly above $4.8 billion driven by a sustained equity bull market and successful distribution of the newly integrated STF Management ETFs. Operating margins expand as fixed costs are leveraged over a larger asset base, and the company increases its quarterly dividend. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |