Helmerich & Payne Inc Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Drilling Beta (adjusted)0.76 Intrinsic Value $47.16median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $38.20Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 23% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $3.8B Enterprise Value $5.5B Shares Outstanding 99.8M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date16 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend18 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Helmerich & Payne (H&P) presents a balanced risk-reward profile as of mid-2026. The company maintains a commanding market share in the U.S. land drilling sector, particularly within the high-margin super-spec rig category, and is expanding its international footprint. However, near-term performance has been heavily pressured by operational disruptions and high reactivation costs in the Middle East, leading to consecutive quarterly net losses. While management expects a positive inflection in rig counts and margins in the second half of fiscal 2026, the stock remains a Hold until international operations stabilize and the domestic rig count demonstrates a sustained recovery. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$30.00 Mean target$42.60 High · most bullish analyst$50.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $30.0020% Persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East cause further operational delays and cost overruns, while domestic E&P operators remain highly disciplined, keeping U.S. land rig counts flat or declining. Continued net losses pressure the dividend coverage and delay deleveraging goals. Base CaseCentral scenario $42.6055% Matches the consensus meanNorth America Solutions rig count stabilizes and grows modestly to 137-143 rigs in Q3 fiscal 2026, with direct margins recovering to the $230-$240 million range. International operations gradually overcome supply chain bottlenecks in the Middle East, and the company successfully retires its remaining near-term debt maturities using steady free cash flow. Bull CaseUpside scenario $50.0025% A rapid recovery in Lower 48 drilling activity combined with successful integration of international assets (such as KCA Deutag) drives super-spec rig utilization above 90%. Reactivated rigs in Saudi Arabia begin generating high-margin cash flows ahead of schedule, and the company achieves its 1.0x leverage target, allowing for enhanced shareholder returns through special dividends or buybacks. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |