Helios Technologies Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Helios Technologies Inc

HLIONYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustrySpecialty Industrial Machinery

Beta (adjusted)1.18

Intrinsic Value $61.63median of 6 methods · middle span $54-$92based on filings through 4 Jul 2026

Market Price $68.89Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 11% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $2.3B

Enterprise Value $2.4B

Shares Outstanding 33.1M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend10 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Helios Technologies is executing a highly successful operational turnaround under its CORE 2030 Strategy. After snapping a multi-year sales decline streak in 2025, the company delivered a record-breaking Q1 2026, characterized by 16.8% year-over-year revenue growth, significant gross margin expansion to 32.8%, and a 33% dividend hike. The investment thesis is anchored on structural margin recovery driven by the consolidation of Hydraulics Centers of Excellence, strong secular demand in mobile and electronics end markets, and a massive new growth vector in data center liquid cooling thermal management solutions via its Faster brand. With leverage reduced to a multi-year low of 1.6x net debt-to-EBITDA, Helios possesses the financial flexibility to fuel organic innovation and strategic acquisitions to double its sales to $1.6 billion by 2030.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets6 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$88.00

Mean target$94.67

High · most bullish analyst$110.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$88.0015%

The bear case is triggered by a severe macroeconomic downturn that dampens demand in cyclical agricultural, construction, and recreational marine end markets. Additionally, persistent supply chain disruptions or severe memory chip cost inflation could compress Electronics margins, while integration delays of future acquisitions slow down the path to the $1.6 billion revenue target.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$94.6760%

Matches the consensus mean

The base case reflects steady execution of the CORE 2030 Strategy, with organic sales growing at a 5%+ CAGR and selective acquisitions adding to the top line. Margins expand gradually through volume leverage and operational efficiencies from regional production optimization. The company achieves its raised FY2026 guidance of $840-$870 million in sales and $2.70-$2.95 in adjusted EPS, supported by stable demand in mobile, marine, and industrial markets.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$110.0025%

The bull case assumes rapid commercialization and scaling of Faster's advanced thermal management solutions in the high-growth data center liquid cooling market, combined with full conversion of the $60 million new business win pipeline. Operational leverage builds rapidly on a fixed cost base, pushing gross margins into the mid-30s and achieving the CORE 2030 Adjusted EBITDA margin target of 25%+ ahead of schedule.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong operational turnaround momentum with consecutive quarters of gross margin expansion and robust cash generation.
Raised FY2026 guidance and a 33% dividend increase, signaling high management confidence in the long-term outlook.
New secular growth catalyst in data center liquid cooling thermal management solutions.
Significant deleveraging with net debt-to-EBITDA down to 1.6x, enhancing financial flexibility.

Key Investment Risks

Cyclical exposure to highly sensitive end markets such as agriculture, construction, and recreational marine.
Potential margin pressure from electronic component and memory chip cost inflation.
Execution and integration risks associated with the acquisition-heavy CORE 2030 Strategy.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Consolidated book-to-bill ratio falling below 0.90x for two consecutive quarters.
Adjusted EBITDA margin contracting below 18% due to operational inefficiencies or cost inflation.
Net debt-to-EBITDA leverage ratio climbing back above 3.0x from undisciplined M&A.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.