Heico Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Heico Corp

HEINYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryAerospace & Defense

Beta (adjusted)1.04

Intrinsic Value $273.31median of 6 methods · middle span $159-$386based on filings through 31 Jul 2026

Market Price $306.39Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 11% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $42.8B

Enterprise Value $45.1B

Shares Outstanding 141.2M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date16 Dec 2026

Last ex-dividend1 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

HEICO entered the final quarter of fiscal 2026 with strong operating momentum: third-quarter net sales rose 23%, organic net sales grew 14%, operating income rose 34%, and consolidated operating margin expanded to 25.1%. Both operating groups reported double-digit organic growth, while quarterly operating cash flow increased 49%. The balance-sheet profile remained manageable at 1.57x net debt to EBITDA, and expanded borrowing capacity supports continued acquisition activity.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets19 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$290.00

Mean target$388.32

High · most bullish analyst$472.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$320.0020%

The downside case would emerge if commercial-aviation demand, defense or space spending, or customer purchasing weakens while acquisition integration and interest costs limit margin resilience. A decline in organic growth below 10%, operating margin below 23%, or leverage above 2.0x would indicate that the current growth and cash-generation profile is deteriorating.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$320.0055%

The modal case assumes growth normalizes from the third quarter's 14% organic rate but remains healthy, consolidated operating margin stays near the fiscal 2026 nine-month level, and acquisition contributions remain profitable. Cash generation should permit continued investment while keeping net debt to EBITDA near or below 2.0x.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$320.0025%

The upside case requires consolidated organic growth to remain in double digits, Electronic Technologies to sustain broad aerospace, defense, and electronics demand, and Flight Support to continue benefiting from commercial-aircraft aftermarket activity. Further operating leverage, strong cash conversion, and disciplined acquisitions could extend earnings growth materially above sales growth.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Third-quarter fiscal 2026 net sales increased 23%, consolidated organic net sales grew 14%, and operating income increased 34%.
Both operating groups participated in growth: Flight Support reported 12% quarterly organic growth and Electronic Technologies reported 18%.
Quarterly operating cash flow increased 49% to $345.3 million, while net debt to EBITDA was 1.57x and the revolving credit facility was expanded to $2.2 billion.

Key Investment Risks

Acquisition intensity remains high: cash used for acquisitions exceeded $1.0 billion during the first nine months of fiscal 2026, increasing integration and capital-allocation execution risk.
Debt and refinancing costs require monitoring after HEICO issued $1.2 billion of senior notes, including 4.950% notes due 2031 and 5.400% notes due 2036.
HEICO identifies commercial-air-travel demand, airline purchasing decisions, defense and space spending, export restrictions, product-development execution, cybersecurity, inflation, and acquisition integration as factors that could adversely affect results.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.