Healthstream Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryHealth Care Technology Beta (adjusted)0.63 Intrinsic Value $29.12median of 6 methods · middle span $17-$41based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $30.36Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 4% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $928.9M Enterprise Value $882.7M Shares Outstanding 29M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date26 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend17 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary HealthStream is a highly stable, market-leading provider of SaaS-based workforce development, credentialing, and scheduling solutions for the healthcare industry. The company has demonstrated robust financial performance, highlighted by a strong Q1 2026 earnings beat with 10.5% year-over-year revenue growth and a 24.1% increase in Adjusted EBITDA. Its transition to an AI-first ecosystem via the newly launched HealthStream Learning Experience (HLX) and strategic acquisitions like Virsys12 and MissionCare Collective support long-term growth. However, the stock trades at a premium valuation (trailing P/E of ~38.8x), which appears to fully price in near-term positives, limiting immediate upside and justifying a Hold rating. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$29.00 Mean target$34.50 High · most bullish analyst$40.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $21.0020% Caregiver burnout and hospital budget constraints lead to slower sales cycles and lower renewal rates. Execution or technology scaling issues in the transition to the hStream platform, or integration friction from recent acquisitions, compress operating margins and drag down valuation multiples. Base CaseCentral scenario $27.8350% HealthStream delivers on its reaffirmed FY 2026 guidance, achieving revenues of $323M to $330M and Adjusted EBITDA of $73M to $77M. Organic subscription growth remains steady at 5-6%, supplemented by moderate inorganic contributions. Margins remain stable as the company balances AI infrastructure investments with operational efficiencies. Bull CaseUpside scenario $32.0030% Accelerated adoption of the AI-first HLX platform drives higher average contract value (ACV) and operating leverage. Successful cross-selling of CredentialStream and ShiftWizard across the unified hStream platform expands margins beyond expectations, while further accretive M&A utilizes the company's strong debt-free cash balance ($66.5M) to accelerate top-line growth. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |