Healthpeak Properties Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Healthpeak Properties Inc

DOCNYSE

SectorReal Estate

IndustryREIT - Healthcare Facilities

Beta (adjusted)1.01

Intrinsic Value $19.64median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $19.44Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 1% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $13.8B

Enterprise Value $22.2B

Shares Outstanding 691.7M diluted

Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend14 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Healthpeak entered the second half of 2026 with improved liquidity, lower reported leverage, raised full-year guidance, resilient outpatient-medical leasing, and strong growth at majority-owned Janus Living. These strengths are offset by weak Lab same-store NOI, sub-80% Lab occupancy, execution risk around substantial capital recycling and senior-housing investment, and exposure to interest rates, tenants, healthcare regulation, and real-estate illiquidity.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets19 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$17.00

Mean target$22.87

High · most bullish analyst$29.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$17.0018%

Lab occupancy and same-store NOI deteriorate further, signed letters of intent do not convert as expected, and transaction or acquisition execution consumes liquidity without sufficient earnings growth. Higher financing costs, tenant stress, or healthcare-policy changes could then pressure adjusted FFO and dividend coverage.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$22.8755%

Matches the consensus mean

Healthpeak delivers within its raised $1.73-$1.77 full-year adjusted-FFO-per-share guidance. Outpatient Medical remains stable and senior-housing growth offsets continued near-term Lab weakness, while capital recycling keeps leverage manageable.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$29.0027%

Outpatient Medical leasing converts into higher occupancy, the Lab pipeline produces stabilization, and Janus Living sustains strong growth. The $1.75 billion of year-to-date proceeds, $3.4 billion of liquidity, and 4.7x leverage provide capacity to fund attractive investments while protecting the dividend and enabling repurchases.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Capital recycling generated $1.75 billion of year-to-date proceeds through August 3, 2026; reported liquidity was $3.4 billion and net debt to Adjusted EBITDAre was 4.7x.
Outpatient Medical occupancy reached 90.7%, while Janus Living reported 45% revenue growth, 34% Adjusted EBITDAre growth, and 19.2% same-store Adjusted NOI growth in the second quarter.

Key Investment Risks

Lab same-store Adjusted NOI declined 3.2% year over year in the second quarter and Lab occupancy was 78.5%, making lease conversion and occupancy stabilization central execution risks.
Healthpeak identifies interest rates, refinancing availability, tenant and operator performance, healthcare regulation and reimbursement, joint ventures, Janus Living exposure, and real-estate illiquidity among material uncertainties.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.