HCI Group Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty Beta (adjusted)1.01 Intrinsic Value $262.77median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $181.39Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 45% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.3B Enterprise Value $1.4B Shares Outstanding 12.8M diluted Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend21 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary HCI Group, Inc. is a highly profitable, technology-driven property and casualty insurer with a dominant position in the Florida residential market. The company's proprietary technology platform, Exzeo, has successfully unlocked significant shareholder value through its public listing, while its disciplined underwriting and strategic policy assumptions continue to drive record earnings. With a robust balance sheet, over $1 billion in cash and cash equivalents, and a newly completed 2026-2027 reinsurance program secured at a 10% lower cost, HCI is exceptionally well-positioned to sustain its industry-leading profitability and return capital to shareholders. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$225.00 Mean target$241.67 High · most bullish analyst$265.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario A severe hurricane season in Florida leads to multiple catastrophic events, exhausting reinsurance retentions and driving up loss adjustment expenses. Regulatory changes or a reversal of legislative reforms increase litigation frequency, compressing underwriting margins. Reinsurance market hardening in subsequent years significantly increases risk transfer costs, limiting profitability. Base CaseCentral scenario HCI maintains its strong underwriting discipline, keeping its combined ratio stable around the target of 60% ±5% barring major catastrophic events. The company benefits from improved rate adequacy and reduced litigation frequency following Florida's legislative reforms. Steady premium growth across its carriers (Homeowners Choice, TypTap, Tailrow) combined with solid investment yields on its cash-rich portfolio supports a consensus price target of $245.00. Bull CaseUpside scenario HCI continues to execute highly profitable policy takeouts in Florida, leveraging its proprietary technology to select low-risk policies. The newly placed 2026-2027 reinsurance program reduces net ceded premiums by 10% to $381 million, expanding net margins. Exzeo Group (XZO) experiences rapid growth as an independent public entity, significantly boosting the value of HCI's 82.5% stake. Share repurchases under the authorized $80 million program accelerate, driving EPS above consensus expectations. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |